Antarctica is our 'bellwether continent' weatherwise
It's official! Antarctic sea ice by Oct. 6 covered its largest area recorded since satellite mapping began more than three decades ago in 1979. The new record was 19.44 million square kilometers.
The September 2012 monthly average of Antarctic sea ice was likewise a new record at 19.39 million square kilometers.
The record sea icepack in Antarctica, as we pointed out a couple of weeks ago, was in stark contrast from this year's record summer melt of sea ice in the Arctic regions surrounding the North Pole. (Santa isn't complaining.)
Dr. Rob Masson of the Australian Antarctic Research Center in Hobart, said this week:
"The message is that there is a lot of work to be done in order to better understand what exact processes climatewise are taking place around Antarctica. We need to know the role of these processes that affect sea ice expansion and retraction."
Dr. Masson went on to say that "the most authoritative climate change models recently predicted as much as a 30 percent loss of Antarctic sea ice by the end of this century and certainly did not predict the current rapid expansion."
Dr. Masson says that when it comes to predicting major climate changes, we must realize that the Earth's weather is "a very complex system."
He added, "the break up of the Larsen Ice Shelf in 2002 in northwestern Antarctica was a sudden reminder that there are rapid changes occurring in certain regions of the continent."
Dr. Masson also said that one possible explanation of the notable increase in sea ice in Antarctica was "the changing patterns globally of large-scale atmospheric circulations, especially near the poles."
This could explain why the retreat of the Arctic ice, by extreme contrast with Antarctica, has been happening much faster than climate scientists predicted would be the case back a decade ago. Dr. Masson says, however, that "there is no connection between the shrinking of ice in the Arctic with the expansion of sea ice in Antarctica."
Our friend, Robert Felix, of IceAgeNow.info, says "where are the breathless headlines in the media concerning the 193,000 extra square miles of sea ice in Antarctica? That's the size of Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Virginia and Maryland combined."
Felix added, "global warmists scream if just one chunk of sea ice the size of Manhattan breaks off Antarctica. But, when 2,400 Manhattans worth of ice form almost overnight, there is nary a peep from the mainstream media. Their agenda is shameful!"
I've pointed out frequently in the past several months that we've seen exceptionally cold and snowy winter seasons since 2007, when the sun went silent, in Europe, Asia, North Africa and throughout the Southern Hemisphere. Thousands of pipes were frozen this past July in Alice Springs, Australia, when all-time record low temperatures in the teens were observed in the region. Cape Town, South Africa had record snowfalls this past winter season.
Just this past week in early October, we saw record low temperatures in nearly 500 locations north of I-70 in the U.S. The snows in parts of North Dakota and Minnesota were the heaviest for so early in the fall season since the same period 62 years ago in 1950.
As I've said for decades now, watch the weather changes in Antarctica and the rest of the Southern Hemisphere. These regions often sound the 'climatological alarms' for further major changes weatherwise in the Northern Hemisphere. Just like 'flu epidemics,' they spread north and east.
NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS
Following the driest July 20 to Oct. 12 in recorded history in Coeur d'Alene dating back to at least 1895, we are looking forward, as long-predicted, to those 'new moon' cycle rains between Oct. 13 and 20. Seattle's all-time record drought of nearly three months will also be broken.
The region should pick up between .40 and .80 inches of precipitation in the next several days. Some of the nearby mountain ski resorts will likely see their first snows of the season above 4,000 feet. A few flakes of the white stuff may be mixed in with the rain in the Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry areas, as temperatures dip to near the freezing mark on Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures will plunge into the 50s. (I'm certainly glad that my heaters are working great in both the house and the car.)
Longer-term, Randy Mann tells me that the latest sea-surface temperature data indicates that temperatures in the Pacific Ocean regions off the West Coast of South America and along the Equatorial zones are now BELOW normal levels. That means that the weak El Nino event has "bitten the dust."
Based on what's happened recently in the Pacific and the sudden buildup of record amounts of sea ice in the Antarctic waters, we believe that a new 'La Nina' may produce colder temperatures and above normal amounts of snow across the Inland Northwest, including North Idaho, this fast-approaching winter of 2012-13.
On Monday, Nov. 5, a day before the Presidential Election, I will be releasing my annual snowfall predictions for dozens of cities and towns in the Inland Empire. In the meantime, get those snowblowers tuned up before the last-minute rush arrives. Old Man Winter is "waiting in the wings."
NOTE: Our record rainless drought since Aug. 21 ended early on the 53rd day, Saturday, Oct. 13 at 2 a.m., with 0.06 inches of rain.
Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com