We can 'blame the sun' for our Pacific Northwest drought

It remains my firm climatological opinion that the combination of a weak 'El Nino' sea-surface temperature event in the waters of the Pacific Ocean and relatively high sunspot activity in 2012 as expected, has led to the all-time record mid July through early October drought pattern in the Pacific Northwest, including North Idaho.

As of this Thursday, Oct. 4 writing, the city of Seattle, since July 23, had gauged a mere 0.03 inches of rain during the entire ten-week period, an all-time record for extreme dryness in the region dating back to at least the mid 1880s.

Locally in Coeur d'Alene, again as of last Thursday, we had measured only .23 inches of precipitation on Player Drive in town since July 20, all of which fell during thunderstorms on Aug. 21. We only had a single wet day in an extended 75-day period, likewise a new record for dryness in Coeur d'Alene. The previous mark for least rainfall during the same time span was .37 inches in 1934 during the three wet days while in the midst of the infamous 'Dust Bowl Days.'

As I've repeatedly stated in this column over the past couple of decades, our SUN is the GREAT WEATHER-MAKER. Carbon dioxide levels are 'irrelevant.'

Even small changes in solar radiation seem to have a major effect on the Earth's climate. Chinese astronomers have kept sunspot records for nearly 5,000 years. They claim that the climate warms during periods of high solar activity and cools, sometimes drastically, during times of extremely few sunspots, like we saw recently in 2007-2010, as well as back in the 1600s during the peak of the so-called 'LITTLE ICE AGE' during the 'MAUNDER MINIMUM' cycle.

There appears to be a strong correlation between increased solar radiation and much warmer than normal temperatures in the Arctic regions southward into China, Japan, the U.S. Mainland and the northern two-thirds of Europe. Most of Russia turns warmer and drier. These droughts have recently led to crop failures and reduced exports of wheat and other grains. Russia's wheat exports in 2012-13 will be down a whopping 50 percent from the levels of 2011-12, when the country exported 27.2 million tons of grain.

Australia and South Africa likewise seem to have crop failures during times of high sunspot activity, especially if there is likewise a warm El Nino event in the waters of the south-central Pacific Ocean. Both Australia and South Africa will see lower exports of grain, like Russia and other countries, in 2012-13. Global famines will likely increase due to widespread shortages of food. Drought-induced high grain prices in the U.S. and parts of Canada will also lower food exports in the next year or two.

There is likewise mounting evidence that the combination of high solar activity, a record summer icemelt in the Arctic regions, and more fresh water in the oceans, has led to rather "significant changes" in the Atlantic Gulf Stream 'conveyor belt' circulation that warms Iceland and Europe. Europe has seen a series of much colder and snowier winter seasons since 2005. If the melting Arctic, including Greenland, continues to increase freshwater outputs into the Atlantic Ocean, these colder winters could persist for the next 20 to 30 years or longer.

It was very unusual indeed last winter when some of the canals froze in Venice, Italy and schools were closed because of the heaviest snows since the 1600s in Rome. Snow fell as far south as North Africa during the winter of 2011-12.

By extreme contrast, here in the U.S., we had one of the mildest winters on record that featured 'rare' January and February tornadoes that resulted in the deaths of dozens of people and millions of dollars in property damage.

We live in a world of constant changes, weatherwise and otherwise. The 'EXTREMES' have become the NORM.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER OUTLOOKS REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

The first snows of the season fell Tuesday night and Wednesday of this past week in the Great Falls, Helena, Butte and Billings areas of eastern Montana. Nearly an inch of rain dampened drought-parched fields along the eastern slopes of the Continental Divide, good news for worried winter wheat farmers needing to quickly plant their crops prior to mid October just ahead of even colder, and perhaps snowier, weather conditions expected during the third week of this month during the 'new moon' lunar phase.

West of the Rockies and east of the Cascade Mountains, we had gusty northeast winds late Tuesday and early Wednesday, but little or no measurable rainfall. Our station on Player Drive gauged only a 'trace' of precipitation early Wednesday. The ground, however, was covered by a thick layer of pine needles, typical of the fall season.

Light to moderate frosts occurred across the Inland Empire late in the week. Readings in the outlying areas away from the warming bodies of water dipped into the mid to upper 20s early Thursday and again on Friday.

The month of September tied both September of 1975 and September of 1976 for extreme dryness since the inception of local Coeur d'Alene weather records in 1895. Only a 'trace' of moisture was observed at my station on Sept. 9. There was 0.01 inches in Fernan Lake also on Sept. 9.

As of Thursday, October 4, we'd only received mere 'traces' of moisture, nothing measurable, since the .23 inches from thunderstorms on Aug. 21. Prior to those showers, it hadn't rained locally in Coeur d'Alene since July 20. The 75-day span from July 20 to Oct. 4 was the driest such extended period on record in town easily breaking the .37 inches for the same period in 1934 during the infamous 'Dust Bowl Days.'

September of 2012 was likewise warmer than normal across the region with afternoon highs averaging six degrees warmer than usual at a summery 79 degrees compared to the 118-year normal of 73 degrees. The morning lows in town during September were four degrees above normal at 47 degrees. The lowest reading on Player Drive was 36 degrees on September 12. However, some of the outlying areas between Athol and Twin Lakes, even parts of Hayden and Rathdrum, reported frosty readings between 27 and 32 degrees. Some damage was reported to leafy vegetables. Tomatoes, though, generally survived the early chill.

Longer-term, we are still awaiting a significant weather change to possibly occur sometime during the upcoming Oct. 15-22 'new moon' lunar phase.

But, if the high pressure ridge fails to finally break down later this month, we could be in for a much drier and probably warmer than usual winter of 2012-13. Once again, only time will tell. Stay tuned.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com