A stormy winter season likely across the northern U.S. and southern Canada

Last week, we gave our area snowfall predictions for the upcoming winter of 2012-13. This week, we'll issue our general winter zonal outlooks for the U.S., Canada and northern Mexico.

ZONE No. 1: THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWESTERN CANADA

As ocean temperatures have cooled in the south-central Pacific Ocean to a weak La Nada (in-between La Nina and El Nino) sea-surface temperature event, moisture has increased after a record dry summer season. It now appears that the upcoming winter season will be a bit colder and wetter than normal as the storm track will be directed over this area. However, snowfall totals should not be all that high as some of the moisture will fall as rain. The heaviest periods of rain and snow are likely during the middle and end of November, December, January, February and early March. Some of the coldest weather will be near the full moon cycles of December, January and February, especially in areas along the U.S./Canada border.

ZONE No. 2: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST

With a La Nada sea-surface temperature event, or the in-between the cooler La Nina and warmer El Nino, it appears that this upcoming winter season will have temperatures near normal, but precipitation will be slightly below normal as most of the storms will stay to the north. However, the end of December and much of the month of January will provide the best chances for measurable precipitation in this region. Also, it's possible that very frigid temperatures will move into Southern California's citrus and vegetable production areas in early to mid January.

ZONE No. 3: THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA, THE NORTHERN U.S. GREAT PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST CORN AND SOYBEAN BELT

Based on the latest information, it appears that ocean temperatures will favor a slight La Nada, or the in-between La Nina and El Nino events. For much of the winter season, temperatures should be slightly below normal levels with above normal precipitation. This would likely mean above normal snowfalls for this region. The best chance for heavy snows across this zone would be toward the end of November, the last week in December and the last week in February or early March. Additional moisture is likely toward the middle of those months, but some of it may fall as rain rather than snow. The last week of January may be very cold across this area.

ZONE No. 4: THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS

Much of this region has suffered through one of the worst drought patterns since the infamous 'Dust Bowl Days' of the 1930s. With normal or slightly below normal sea-surface temperatures, there should be an increase of moisture during the winter season. Unfortunately, moisture totals should remain below normal levels which would extend the drought cycle into early 2013. The middle of December, January and February would provide the best chances for measurable precipitation in this region. Some snow is likely down into the Panhandle regions of Oklahoma and Texas, especially toward the end of each winter month.

ZONE No. 5: THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA

Rather than a new El Nino, it appears that the cooler than normal sea-surface temperature event, a weak La Nada (in between the warmer El Nino and cooler La Nina), will bring cooler and wetter than normal weather for the upcoming winter season. This region has already seen a powerful "Mega Storm" in late October and an early November Nor'Easter. It's quite possible that another two or three Nor'Easters will move into the region. The best chances for such crippling blizzards would be during the middle or the last weeks of November, December, January, February or early March. If ocean temperatures remain colder than normal until at least early 2013, then much of the moisture that falls will likely be in the form of snow.

ZONE No. 6: THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., INCLUDING FLORIDA

With a cool-down in sea-surface temperatures near the Equatorial regions, conditions for the upcoming winter season look colder and drier than normal. Frosty temperatures, which could threaten both citrus and vegetable crops, will be possible down into central, and perhaps even southern Florida, towards late December or early to mid January. There will also be instances of ice from the Tennessee Valley southward to areas just north of Gulf Coast as colder air moves in from Canada and clashes headon with copious amounts of Gulf moisture.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

The first winter storm of an expected snowier than normal winter of 2012-13, blasted into North Idaho on Thursday evening and didn't push out of the region until early Saturday morning. Between 2 and 5 inches of snow was measured at our 'backyard' weather stations.

Icy roads, subfreezing temperatures and gusty northeast winds were several factors that combined to cause dozens of accidents, including many fender-benders, from eastern Washington eastward into western Montana.

It was likewise extremely cold during the 48-hour period ending at noon on Saturday. Friday's high of just 29 degrees was three degrees colder than the previous record low maximum reading for Nov. 9 of 32 degrees set back at the end of World War II in 1945.

The mercury dipped on Player Drive early Saturday to a frigid 19 degrees. The wind chill factor was a bitter 10 degrees. One man called to tell me that he had 15 degrees near Athol on Saturday.

There were a few widely scattered flurries in the region as I wrote this North Idaho weather update shortly before noon on Saturday. After a brief respite from the snow shower activity on Sunday, forecasters, including yours truly, are predicting a second snowstorm today, the celebrated Veterans' Day. Again, we could receive another 2 to 5 inches of the white stuff before warmer temperatures turn the precipitation back to rain on Tuesday.

Longer-term, we see more rain and snow showers by late this week into the rest of the normally damp 'new moon' lunar cycle ending Nov. 20.

We should easily surpass our normal November snowfall total since 1895 in town of 8.7 inches sometime around Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 22. Another 25 inches of snow should fall in Coeur d'Alene between Nov. 22 and the end of 2012 on Dec. 31, New Year's Eve. Stay tuned.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com