Month-by-month, March-September spring and summer of 2012 North Idaho weather outlooks
2ND HALF OF MARCH 2012
The rest of the month of March should see near-normal temperatures with showers alternating with sunny periods. There may be some light snow flurries during the colder overnight hours, especially during the early spring normally wetter 'new moon' phase of March 22-29. As is typical for the month of March, we should see some gusty winds at times with the passage of cold fronts from the Gulf of Alaska.
APRIL 2012
Last April of 2011 was dominated by a chilly 'La Nina' event in the waters of the Pacific Ocean. It was the third wettest (3.70 inches) and the third snowiest (7.6 inches) April on record since at least 1895. It likewise was the third coldest April on record with an average temperature more than six degrees below normal. The 41 degree high on April 26 was the coldest maximum reading ever observed locally for so late in the season. Measurable snowfalls occurred as late as April 29 when there was also a hard freeze, particularly in the colder outlying areas in North Idaho.
This April, thanks to a milder 'La Nada' sea-surface temperature cycle in the Pacific Ocean waters, should be a bit warmer and drier than normal in the Inland Northwest.
This time around, I don't see any 'Easter snows' in the region. We should likewise see a daytime high in the upper 50s or lower 60s on April 8. It should be at least a partly sunny Sunday.
It's quite likely that we'll see two or three afternoons this April with high temperatures in the pleasant 70s. There will be some frosty mornings, but that's normal for April.
Our normal April rainfall is 1.77 inches since 1895. This April's precipitation should be near 1.50 inches with less than an inch of snow expected during the entire 30-day span.
MAY 2012
May of 2011 was another in a long series of much colder and wetter than normal months across the Inland Northwest, including North Idaho.
The afternoon high temperature on May 16 was only 45 degrees, some 20 degrees below normal. A 'trace' of snow was observed on May 24 along with a record low maximum reading for the date of just 50 degrees. There were several frosty mornings during May of 2011 which was three degrees colder than normal. May's total rainfall of 3.92 inches was 1.55 inches above normal.
This May will likely be one or two degrees above normal temperaturewise at my station on Player Drive in the northwestern corner of Coeur d'Alene. As far as precipitation is concerned, I see approximately 2.25 inches this May compared with the 117-year normal since 1895 of 2.37 inches. There will be least three thunderstorms this May. Some pea or marble-sized hail and strong, gusty winds are likewise expected in the region but, fortunately for us, NO TORNADOES!
JUNE 2012
Last June, it was fairly cool until the very end of the month when we saw some summery mid 80s in town along with a sharp decrease in precipitation.
Our total precipitation last June was 2.12 inches, a bit above our 117-year normal for the 30-day period of 1.93 inches. There was only one thunderstorm on June 23. We finished the 2010-11 snowfall season on June 30 at 121 inches, nearly double our 117-year norm of 69.8 inches.
This June promises to be both warmer and drier than usual again thanks, at least in part, to a milder 'La Nada' in the Pacific waters. We should be a couple of degrees warmer than normal with a total June precipitation of 1.60 inches, .33 inches less than normal. By month's end, we should surpass the 90-degree 'Sholeh Mark' in town. Summer activities will be in full swing following an expected weather-favored 'Iron Man' event late in the month.
JULY 2012
Last July was still considerably cooler than usual overall with an average high of 79 degrees compared with the 117-year norm of nearly 85 degrees in Coeur d'Alene. There were three afternoons with highs at or above 90 degrees last July compared to the normal of seven such 'Sholeh Days.'
July was drier than normal in 2011 at just .77 inches compared to the 117-year average of .92 inches. A strong storm on July 13 dumped .63 inches of rain, approximately 80 percent of the entire month's total precipitation.
This July will be warmer than normal with at least nine 'Sholeh Days' at or above 90 degrees. I see a couple of thunderstorms, mainly near the mountains, toward mid-month. Our total July 2012 precipitation should be near .80 inches, a bit below normal.
It's possible that by the second or third week of July, we could 'flirt' with the 100-degree mark in town. (I'll have more details later on this torrid heatwave as patterns develop.)
AUGUST 2012
August of 2011 was very warm with an average high of 86 degrees, two degrees above normal. The summer of 2011's highest reading of 97 degrees occurred on Aug. 28, the last day of the rainless 2011 North Idaho Fair and Rodeo. There were 10 afternoons last August with readings in the 90s.
The month of August 2011 was bone dry until the final 8 hours of the month when .31 inches fell during a brief thunderstorm on Player Drive. Our normal August precipitation since 1895 has been 1.23 inches.
This August, I foresee at least 10 afternoons in the region with afternoon highs in the 90s. Once again, toward the middle of the month, we could approach the century mark.
Total precipitation in Coeur d'Alene this August should be near an inch thanks to a couple of thunderstorms. But, most days will be warm to hot and generally sunny, perfect for all types of outdoor activities.
SEPTEMBER 2012
Last September was four degrees warmer than normal with a near-record nine 'Sholeh Days' at or above 90 degrees, including a record for the date of 94 degrees on Sept. 12.
Total precipitation during September of 2011 was just .65 inches, less than half the normal rainfall of 1.48 inches since 1895.
This September probably won't be quite as warm as last year, but we could still see at least four to six afternoons near 90 degrees during the 30-day period.
As far as precipitation is concerned, I see about 1.30 inches this September, a bit below normal. Some light frosts will be possible late in the period, especially in those normally colder areas away from the warmer lake waters at the higher elevations.
All in all, it looks like a rather nice spring season of 'sun and showers' and another hot and dry summer in 2012.
Next week, Randy will feature updated solar and sea-surface charts for the spring and summer seasons.
Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com