Will the wettest June ever be followed by a hotter- and drier-than-normal summer?
Below, I've listed the 10 wettest Junes on record in Coeur d'Alene since 1895 and a description of the following summer months of July and August, precipitationwise and otherwise.
1. 2012, 5.55 inches. I'm predicting less than two inches combined for July and August precipitation. The normal since 1895 for the 62-day period has been 2.15 inches. As of June 30, 2012, our annual rainfall on Player Drive in town stood at an all-time record 26.19 inches, just 0.58 inches less than a normal full year.
2. 1947, 5.09 inches. The following July/August rainfall was just 1.28 inches, 0.87 inches below normal. The summer of 1947 was hot with 26 days at 90 degrees or above and two days above 100 degrees.
3. 2010, 4.63 inches. The July/August total combined rainfall was just 1.48 inches, 0.67 inches below normal. The summer of 2010 was warm, but not particularly hot. There were less 90-degree plus 'Sholeh Days' than normal.
4. 1971, 4.62 inches. The July/August combined precipitation was an above normal 2.78 inches. Summer temperatures during July and August of 1971 were well above average. August highs averaged 92 degrees, 8 degrees warmer than normal since 1895. There were 31 days of 90-degree plus temperatures that blistering summer.
5. 1913, 4.45 inches. It was extremely dry and quite hot in July and August with only a combined 62-day precipitation total of 1.05 inches. There were 28 days with afternoon highs exceeding 90 degrees and 3 days with triple-digit readings.
6. 1991, 4.12 inches. Thanks to 'La Nina,' this summer was the coolest on record since 1895 in North Idaho. Temperatures averaged 7 degrees below normal. There were only three afternoons all summer above the 90-degree mark thanks to a persistent cloud cover over the region. Total precipitation during July and August combined in 1991 was a near-normal 2.13 inches. There were 17 days with measurable precipitation, mostly light, likewise a chilly, damp record for July and August.
7. 1964, 4.01 inches. Flooding occurred in North Idaho, and particularly in Northwest Montana, during June of 1964. Many bridges were washed out in Glacier National Park. The following summer was briefly hot in July, but the month of August was chilly and wet with nearly three inches of rain and afternoon highs an incredible 10 degrees below normal at just 74 degrees. The total July/August precipitation was nearly double normal at 4.12 inches. December of 1964 was very wet at 7.85 inches in Coeur d'Alene.
8. 1981, 3.97 inches. The summer of 1981 turned very hot and dry across the region under a strong ridge of high pressure. There were 32 afternoons that summer at or above 90 degrees, including 4 days with triple-digit readings. The July/August combined rainfall of just 1.01 inches was less than half of the normal 62-day total of 2.15 inches.
9. 1983, 3.94 inches. Much like this year, searing heat and dryness baked Midwestern crops while we remained unusually cool and wet with more than double our normal July/August precipitation at 4.86 inches. Later that fall and early winter, we gauged more than 10 inches of precipitation in Coeur d'Alene, again more than double the November/December normal since 1895.
10. A TIE. Both 1937 and 2005 gauged 3.63 inches of precipitation during the month of June. Each summer was warmer than normal overall despite occasional thunderstorms that produced slightly above normal amounts of precipitation; 2.82 inches in 2005 and 2.23 inches in 1937.
In summation, according to our past climatological records dating back to 1895 in Coeur d'Alene, wetter the normal Junes are followed by hotter and drier than normal summer seasons at least 60 percent of the time. Both Randy Mann and I feel that the summer of 2012 will follow suit, at least as far as temperatures are concerned. We likewise see less precipitation and increased hours of brilliant sunshine in the region.
But, as always, stay tuned.
Special Note: According to Spokane's records, the Lilac City had over 5 inches of rain (5.12") in 1888, seven years prior to the inception of Coeur d'Alene's records in 1895.
NORTH IDAHO'S WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS
As featured in the main article today, June of 2012 was the wettest on record dating back to at least 1895 in Coeur d'Alene, easily topping the previous record damp June in 1947 by nearly a half inch of precipitation at a whopping 5.55 inches compared to 5.09 inches 65 years ago.
But, if Randy Mann and I are right in our long-range outlooks, July, August and at least early September, should be both DRIER and WARMER than usual with at least 25 'Sholeh Days' at or above 90 degrees and possibly as many as 3-4 afternoons near or above the century mark, especially in late July or early to mid August.
If an El Nino arrives by mid summer, as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) now predicts, the upcoming fall and winter seasons of 2012-13 may be both WARMER and DRIER than usual throughout the Inland Northwest, including North Idaho.
As always, stay tuned.
SPECIAL NOTES
The .28 inches on June 30 pushed our all-time record June rainfall total to 5.84 inches, topping the previous mark set in 1947 by .75 inches (5.09).
Also, the first six months of 2012 (26.48 inches) were the wettest such period on record, almost matching the normal rainfall total (26.77) for an entire year!
Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com