Hoping for a better year

Sure, folks have nagging thoughts about keeping New Year's resolutions, and that 2012 Mayan-Calendar-end-of-the-world thing.

But one question is likely topping worry lists - whether the economy will bounce back this year.

Representatives of local industries are saying about the same: They're cautiously optimistic.

Emphasis on cautious.

"I think our growth next year will be modest," predicted Steve Wilson, president and CEO of the Coeur d'Alene Chamber of Commerce.

He hopes tourism will pick up next summer, thanks to an increased focus on marketing to Canadian visitors. Gas prices dropping a smidge could also alleviate the barrier that has been blocking many from traveling, he added.

"Over the last several years we've focused our marketing on destinations closer to home, so Portland, Seattle, Boise, the Canadian market," Wilson said. "Last year we did see a bit of an uptick in the Canadian traveler, and there's anticipation some of that will continue."

He hears encouraging feedback from members of the chamber, he added, which are reporting higher consumer confidence this holiday season.

Big box stores have also finished at a stronger pace than earlier in the year, he said.

But he isn't expecting a spurt of jobs.

"It's an optimistic thought, but I think some of the things happening at the federal level unfortunately are not moving the country very quickly into expansion mode," Wilson said.

The long flailing construction industry has seen some encouraging indicators, said Larry Jeffres, executive director of the North Idaho Building and Contractors Association.

The Parade of Homes showcase of local builders' products was well attended this year, he said, and several contractors landed sales there and entered into agreements for future construction.

"That was a bright spot," Jeffres said. "At the same time, when we look at the statistics that are provided to us by the municipalities in Kootenai County, (building) permits are still down."

He acknowledged that construction likely won't experience a strong recovery until Kootenai County burns through all the real estate in foreclosure first.

But word on the street from bankers hints that more loans for home construction are being offered than last year, he said, which will also expedite the return of customers.

"There is a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel," he said. "It might be slow getting to full light exposure."

The area's shining star should be manufacturing, said Ron Nilson, owner of Ground Force Manufacturing.

His own business, as well as other companies like Sunshine Minting Inc. and L.A. Aluminum boasted high sales numbers over 2010, he said.

Other manufacturers are expanding and forecasting even more success in 2012, Nilson added.

"A lot of it is being able to go overseas," said Nilson, whose own company provides mining equipment to customers in more than 40 countries. "The overseas economy I wouldn't say is better, but they're buying American-made goods."

Ground Force itself is taking a calculated risk after breaking ground for a new expansion, and has also leased a 55,000-square foot manufacturing facility in Plummer, estimated to employ 50 new workers.

"For us, we've already got that pretty much guaranteed we're going to have a better year," Nilson said, alluding to sales numbers.

Tom Power, owner of businesses in the manufacturing, service and home theater industries, had varying predictions on how each will fare next year.

His company Sunshine Minting should be more robust in exports, he said, thanks to recently expanding into China.

Like other-tourism related businesses, his restaurant the Wine Cellar will depend largely on a long summer for success, though.

He plans to expand the establishment, he added, to attract new customers.

"Obviously 2011 was a very difficult year for most restaurants," he said, attributing it to the delayed summer. "Maybe because the Wine Cellar has been around for 20 years, we've been fortunate enough to maintain a local clientele that keeps us buoyant during slow months."

His home theater business Power Audio Video is thriving, he added, which he believes reflects how folks are investing in improvements for their current residences, rather than building new homes.

"They're going through a cocooning phase," he said. "Friends of mine who are contractors probably aren't happy to hear that, but we see people, they don't want to expose themselves to the poor real estate markets."

Steve Griffitts with Jobs Plus could not be reached about new businesses expected for the area.

But regional Economist Alivia Body predicted job growth will continue at a slow pace.

"While growth should stabilize the unemployment rate and keep it from rising, I anticipate job growth to hover around 1 percent in the coming year," stated Body, with the Idaho Department of Labor.

Kootenai County's unemployment rate was 10.5 percent in October.

Health care continues to be the fastest growing industry in the county, Body added, with more than 500 job openings through the third quarter. Though that doesn't count Kootenai Health, Body noted the company's monthly openings as "substantial."

Jeffres said the region's recovery is still in the hands of local residents.

"I think you create your own prosperity," he said. "I think this Christmas season and consumer spending is a bit of a sign of that. As long as caution and reasonable spending take place, I think it can happen."