Global cooling should increase with a quieter sun

A report released at the end of January by British climate scientists at the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit showed that the Earth's average temperatures have dropped to the same levels seen back in 1997 before the so-called "Big Warmup."

The average global temperature in 2011 was 0.36 degrees Celsius (0.68 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal. In the previous decade, the average temperature on this planet was a steady 0.44 degrees Celsius (0.81 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal.

The British scientists agree with many Russian and Japanese climate scientists that the world could be headed towards "a new 'Little Ice Age' sometime in the near future."

The new climate study suggests that the next significant cycle of cooling may rival the 70-year period in the mid 1600s that saw 'frost fairs' held each winter season in London on the Thames River which froze solid in January and February.

Ironically, subzero temperatures during the past three record cold weeks across much of Europe and Asia have been compared to similar times during the last 'Little Ice Age,' which ended about 1850.

For example, the Czech Republic town of Kvilda on Feb. 4, logged an all-time record low temperature of minus-40 degrees Celsius (minus-40 degrees Fahrenheit). On the same morning, Graubuenden, Switzerland plunged to minus-35 degrees Fahrenheit, likewise a record low.

The very cold temperatures also hit much of Asia. One station on Feb. 6 in northwestern China hit minus-38 degrees Fahrenheit. On Feb. 3, the mercury dipped to minus-36 degrees Celsius (minus-33 degrees Fahrenheit) at Elsashi in Hokkaido, Japan's coldest temperature ever recorded. Troops were called out in northwestern Japan to clear a whopping 14 feet of snow from residential roofs and area businesses in Uonuma.

Just this past week, the mighty Danube River froze up causing millions of dollars in losses to shippers and others on the key European waterway. Countries like Romania and Moldova remained buried by 15 feet of snow.

The record coldwave pushed all the way south into North Africa. One Saharan outpost reported minus-9 degrees Celsius (16 degrees Fahrenheit). This trading station had never seen a minimum temperature below 25 degrees Fahrenheit.

Some canals, as we reported last week, in Venice, Italy, actually froze over for the first time in decades. More than six inches of snow closed schools and businesses earlier this month in Rome. Rare snows fell in Sicily and in Tunisia in North Africa. At least two dozen people were killed on ice and snow-slicked roads in Algeria.

As the current sunspot 'maxima' cycle peaks and then begins to wane in the next couple of years, we should see much colder temperatures and snowier winter seasons across North America and much of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere and, perhaps, even some other regions of the Southern Hemisphere to the north of Antarctica.

Once again, only time will tell just how low temperatures will be.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOKS

Much like during the first half of January, the first half of February across the lowlands of North Idaho was practically snowless, less than an inch of the white stuff in total on Player Drive.

But, as with the second half of January, which brought two feet of snow in just the third week of the month to my station on Player Drive, I'm expecting that we'll see at least 10 inches of snow locally between now and Feb. 29, 'Leap Year Day.'

The six-week span from March 1 through April 12 may see another six to ten inches of snow at the lower elevations with much heavier totals in the nearby mountains for the skiers and snowboarders. We could end the 2011-12 snow season on June 30 fairly close to the expected 63 inches that I predicted in December, some 7 inches below the normal seasonal snowfall in Coeur d'Alene since 1895 of 69.8 inches, despite the weak 'La Nina.'

The six-week span from mid April through the end of May will feature a pattern of 'sun and showers' locally across North Idaho and the surrounding Inland Empire. Temperatures will be milder than usual and much warmer than a year ago, when the same period was the third coldest on record since 1895.

The month of June should begin on a damp note, but end with a drier and warmer cycle of temperatures well above normal, especially if the current weak 'La Nina' does die off in the waters of the Pacific Ocean as predicted. Randy Mann says that "La Nina is barely hanging on."

The July through September summer of 2012 should be both warmer and drier than normal thanks to a huge ridge of high pressure that will camp out over the Inland Northwest for weeks on end. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a couple of afternoons near the century mark this summer with more than 20 'Sholeh Days' above 90 degrees observed during the 90-day span.

Happy Presidents' Day!

SPECIAL NOTE

A cold, moist weather system dumped 6.7 inches (measured every 4 hours) of snow on Player Drive on Feb. 18-19 as of 3 p.m. Sunday. The 4.9 inches since midnight Saturday was a new record for the date since 1895.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com