Optimism for 2013

One doesn't have to look far to see a lot of positive news about the housing market. Interest rates are low, sales of homes are up and home prices are gradually increasing, helping some who lost so much equity in the post-boom decline.

Now, one of the most anticipated financial disasters - the Fiscal Cliff - is providing some much needed stimulus to commercial or investment real estate. The past several weeks have seen a flurry of activity on a national level as investors dump properties to avoid the anticipated increase in capital gains that may come in the next few weeks.

"Investors I've spoken with were either caught flat-footed, believing that Romney was going to be elected, or believed they could, via 1031 exchanges, escape the prospect of increased capital gain taxes," said John Mendoza, an agent with New Growth Commercial Real Estate Co. in Las Vegas. "However, there was certainly a fair percentage of those investors, about 25-35 percent, who positioned themselves to sell before year's end to avoid the prospect of higher capital gain taxes."

Interestingly, buyers too are stepping forward. Now that the election is over and there is at least some certainty by investors as to what is ahead, many are cautiously moving to invest in real estate. As with housing, there are many bargain priced properties for commercial investors although locally, multi-family bargains are few among them.

We do see movement in our local commercial arena. Just like in housing though, transactions are completed with many landlord concessions or seller discounts, but deals are getting done. There is some concern that the economy will remain stagnant for some time. Fed head Bernanke has announced a plan to suppress interest rates and continue buying Treasury Bonds, both signs of a fragile recovery.

For end users and leasehold tenants there are bargains to be found.

Excessive inventory in office and retail means lots of competition for buyers and tenants. In the Riverstone Development we see storefronts filling up. That is due to competitive pricing and friendly lease terms. At their current rate this oft-stalled project is soon to become the gem of the Northwest Boulevard gateway to Coeur d'Alene.

As we have consistently noted, our housing market continues its long recovery. We see inventory of pre-owned homes declining and a slight increase in the construction and sale of new homes. Even with the slight uptick in interest rates for home loans, we anticipate this recovery will continue, provided our nation's leaders are able to reach a solution to the looming fiscal cliff.

According to the National Association of Realtors total existing home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 5.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million in November from a downwardly revised 4.76 million in October, and are 14.5 percent higher than the 4.40 million-unit pace in November 2011. Sales are at the highest level since November 2009 when the annual pace spiked at 5.44 million.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun, said there is healthy market demand. "Momentum continues to build in the housing market from growing jobs and a bursting out of household formation," he said. "With lower rental vacancy rates and rising rents, combined with still historically favorable affordability conditions, more people are buying homes. Areas impacted by Hurricane Sandy show storm-related disruptions but overall activity in the Northeast is up, offset by gains in unaffected areas."

Overall, we are optimistic about a continued real estate recovery this coming year.

Trust an expert...call a Realtor. Call your Realtor or visit www.cdarealtors.com to search properties on the Multiple Listing Service or to find a Realtor member who will represent your best interests.

Kim Cooper is a real estate broker and the spokesman for the Coeur d'Alene Association of Realtors. Kim and the association invite your feedback and input for this column. You may contact them by writing to the Coeur d'Alene Association of Realtors, 409 W. Neider, Coeur d'Alene, ID 83815 or by calling (208) 667-0664.