Causes of the 2010-12 drought

In the opinion of this climatologist, there are NATURAL factors controlling the world's climate and its frequent changes. They are:

1. The output of solar energy, sunspots, flares, etc.

2. The Earth's distance and position relative to the sun at any given time.

3. Sea-surface temperatures, especially in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

4. The upper-level jet stream patterns associated with the other factors.

Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center recently used a new computer model and satellite data to examine U.S. climate changes over the past century.

Their study indicated that cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean regions at the same time warmer than usual sea-surface readings were being observed building in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean waters caused "major climate changes."

According to NASA, this sea-surface temperature 'diversity' created ideal drought and extreme heat conditions across areas east of the Rockies to the Atlantic Coastline. The upper-level jet stream patterns took radially different courses than usual across the North American continent. Strong high pressure in the nation's midsection blocked-out the normal juicy moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico for months on end.

This 75-year recurring drought and heat pattern in the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. occurred previously in the late 1850s and early 1860s and likewise before that in the dusty decade of the 1780s when many cities along the southeastern Atlantic coastline literally ran out of potable water supplies. Crops died in the parched fields.

During each of these major 75-year droughts, by extreme contrast, the Pacific Northwest, western Canada and Alaska tended to be in a cycle that was wetter, cooler and often snowier than normal, particularly in Alaska, which had its snowiest winter season overall in at least 200 years in 2011-12. Much of Asia and central and southern Europe likewise saw an unusually snowy and cold winter in 2011-12. The canals froze in parts of Venice in Italy. Schools in Rome were closed for the first time ever due to heavy snowfalls. Just this past week, Hillary Clinton saw 'rare' snows in South Africa, the first measurable snowfall in Cape Town since at least 1968.

Next week in 'Gems,' I will cover in detail what happened during the infamous 'Dust Bowl Era' of the 1930s, the worst such drought and heat cycle for the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. in at least 500 years, much worse than the current 2010-12 major drought pattern.

The Dust Bowl all but dried up an already horribly depressed American economy in the 1930s. In its wake, it left billions of dollars in losses to crops and forced thousands of farmers to abandon their dust-choked homesteads.

We should remember that these 75-year recurring drought cycles in the U.S. are 'NATURAL,' NOT MANMADE. That's a fact.

What we need are intelligent, informed leaders that will plan ahead for these predictable natural disasters. They arrive like 'clockwork' on a solar timetable.

Likewise remember, "PREPARATION EQUALS OPPORTUNITY." That's how we were able to make huge profits in corn and soybeans futures and 'call' options in the past several months.

North Idaho weather outlook

Our long-standing cycle of WIDE WEATHER 'EXTREMES' continues unabated across the Inland Northwest, including North Idaho.

Following the wettest spring and early summer period on record, we've seen the driest mid-summer season since at least 1895. The last measurable precipitation at my station on Player Drive in Coeur d'Alene as of this Thursday, Aug. 16 writing, was four weeks ago, when 0.07 inches fell on July 21.

We likewise turned quite hot lately with most afternoons near or above 90 degrees. On both Aug. 7 and Aug. 13, the mercury soared in town to 95 degrees.

The hot and dry weather conditions have led recently to a series of wildfires across the Far West. One fire on Tuesday, Aug. 14, burned more than 40 square miles of brushland near Cle Elum, Wash., west of Ellensburg. Hundreds of residents of the region were forced to evacuate their homes.

As of this writing, dozens of fires were still burning in Oregon, Nevada and California. There were 14 forest and brush fires reported this past week in Idaho, where a 20-year-old firefighter, Anne Veseth, was killed near Orofino when struck by a falling tree.

I see very little relief from the hot, dry and windy weather pattern of late. In fact, thanks to a stubborn stationary El Nino-enhanced ridge of high pressure, we should continue to be both warmer and drier than normal well into the month of October.

There may be a brief shower or thunderstorm at times, but mostly fair skies should be the rule for the next 60 days or so across North Idaho. I see at least another 8 to 10 warm 90 degree plus 'Sholeh Days' during the period. That would give us an above normal total of 28 to 30 such days by around Sept. 20.

Update

Following a blisteringly hot third weekend of August with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s (including Sunday's hottest day of the year thus far, with a high of 98), it should cool off into the low to mid 80s, perhaps even the upper 70s, by this week's edition of the North Idaho Fair and Rodeo.

We may see a few scattered showers early on Wednesday, perhaps a thunderstorm or two. But, the rest of the fair should be mostly sunny as promised.

I'll be in the Coeur d'Alene Press booth, Lord willing, between 4 and 6 p.m. on Thursday, Aug. 23. Hope to see you there.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com

Harris

Weather Gems

Weekly Weather Almanac

n Week's warmest temperature: 98 degrees on Aug. 19

n Week's coldest temperature: 51 degrees on Aug. 17

n Weekly precipitation: 0.00 inches

n Precipitation month to date: 0.00 inches

n Normal precipitation month to date: 0.76 inches

n Precipitation month to date last year: trace

n Precipitation year to date: 29.09 inches

n Normal precipitation year to date: 15.63 inches

n Precipitation last year to date: 22.64 inches

n Normal annual precipitation: 26.77 inches

n Total precipitation last year: 31.62 inches

n Precipitation predicted this year: 35.93 inches

n Precipitation predicted in 2013: 28.40 inches

n Record annual precipitation: 38.77 inches in 1996

n All-time least annual precipitation: 15.18 inches in 1929

Readings taken week ending Sunday, 4 p.m., Aug. 19