A weak 'El Nino' appears to be forming

The latest sea-surface temperature data indicates that ocean temperatures off the west coast of South America and along the equatorial regions are continuing to warm up. Readings near the South American coastline have climbed to several degrees above normal. There have also been isolated regions of ocean waters over 3 degrees above average.

Within the last week, however, there were indications of some slight cooling near the South American coast. That area will need to be watched very carefully over the next several weeks. Based on the current data, it looks like a weak El Nino event. According to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology, an agency that watches El Ninos and La Ninas very carefully, "observations show a resumption of warming across the central tropical Pacific Ocean."

With the recent overall trend of ocean warming, this may be one reason for the extreme heat and dryness for much of the U.S. that has led to widespread damage to the corn crop. Recent reports indicate some of the worst crop losses in history. The long-range computer models show very little relief from the extreme heat and dry conditions through at least the middle of August, probably longer.

The climate models continue to point to the strong possibility of a global El Nino weather pattern emerging this summer or early fall. If the new El Nino becomes strong enough, then upper-level weather patterns would change and likely reduce the number of tropical storms and hurricanes. During El Nino years, we often see a "wind shear" effect that prevents the formation of these storms. We saw four named storms prior to El Nino's development. Since that time, there have not been any named storms, but that could change at any time.

Ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Caribbean are only slightly above normal levels. Despite El Nino, if one of those systems forms and moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there is a good chance that the southern Plains would receive some soaking rains as the storm moves northward. This did help break big drought patterns in the Midwest like the ones in 1980 and 1983. Stay tuned.

Solar storms are fluctuating

Solar activity, or storms on the sun, are still in a "back and forth" pattern in terms of the number of storms since early this year. Many scientists are still saying that this upcoming solar maxima cycle, which is expected to peak in late 2012 or early 2013, should not be very strong. Based on the current information, we would tend to agree.

Solar storms were very low during the late spring and early summer. From July 1 to July 15, sunspot numbers rebounded with an average of 130 per day. Since mid July, however, the number of storms on the sun dropped to a low of 29 storms on the 22nd. The most recent numbers over the last week show a low of 77 storms on July 26 to a high of 108 sunspots on July 28, just two days later.

NASA's latest prediction for this upcoming solar maxima is for about a daily average of 60 sunspots, making this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years. If the recent numbers are any indication, they may be right on track.

Despite the "back and forth" pattern, we have already seen a number of moderate solar flares approach the Earth. The last one brushed this planet on July 15. It's very likely that additional flares will be ejected from the sun between now and at least early 2013. Despite overall low sunspot numbers, a strong event could cause trillions of dollars worth of damage to satellites, power grids, home electronics, etc. Back in 1989, a solar storm was strong enough to literally shut down a power plant in Canada. Just this past week, half of India was "left in the dark" by a huge power failure.

During the "peak" of the last solar maxima in the late 1990s, we were seeing 200-300 solar storms each day. At this point, it's doubtful that we'll see sunspot numbers similar to the ones back in the late 1990s, but anything is possible as there is still a lot of time between now and the peak of this cycle in late 2012 or early 2013.

North Idaho weather outlook

The last third of July was completely dry and very warm across the region. We ended up with 10 90-degree plus 'Sholeh Days' this July, only two such days below my predicted 12 days.

The average (mean) temperature in July was 71 degrees, two degrees above normal. Our warmest afternoon was observed on July 12, when the mercury soared in Coeur d'Alene to 97 degrees. One station in the Lewiston area to the south of us reached a toasty 103 degrees on July 12.

Our minimum average reading in July of 57 degrees was 3 degrees above the normal of 54 degrees. We had a lot of warm and muggy nights, not good for sleeping, during July. But, our total hours of sunshine last month at 220 hours was just 10 hours less than normal despite two extremely wet periods at the very beginning of July and especially during the middle of the 31-day period.

There were 11 days with thunderstorm activity this July, six such days more than the average of five thunderstorms. These unusually strong storms produced a whopping 2.61 inches of measurable precipitation in July, nearly three times the normal monthly rainfall since local records began 117 years ago in 1895 of just 0.92 inches, normally the driest month of the year.

Longer-term, precipitation amounts should be well below normal during the next 60 days into early October. I'm likewise predicting warmer than usual temperatures during the rest of the summer with an additional 13 to 16 'Sholeh Days' at 90 degrees or above.

The weather for the 2012 North Idaho Fair and Rodeo still looks good, warm and sunny. Hopefully, it won't be too hot.

Special note

In response to the Aug. 3 Letter to the Editor from John Ritterbach: The 500-year rains during July in Japan, China and North Korea didn't have anything to do with the 150-year cycle of melting in Greenland that goes back to the end of the "little ice age" in the 1850s.

Mr. Ritterbach should get a third-grader to explain the differences in these naturally-occurring cycles.

Also, Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts and his assistant Mel Thompson have started a congressional investigation into "chem trails." Call (316) 263-0416 for the latest updates.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com

Harris

Weather Gems

Weekly Weather Almanac

• Week's warmest temperature: 94 degrees on Aug. 5

• Week's coldest temperature: 50 degrees on Aug. 3

• Weekly precipitation: 0.00 inches

• Precipitation month to date: 0.00 inches

• Normal precipitation month to date: 0.19 inches

• Precipitation month to date last year: 0.00 inches

• Precipitation year to date: 29.09 inches

• Normal precipitation year to date: 15.06 inches

• Precipitation last year to date: 22.64 inches

• Normal annual precipitation: 26.77 inches

• Total precipitation last year: 31.62 inches

• Precipitation predicted this year: 35.93 inches

• Precipitation predicted in 2013: 28.40 inches

• Record annual precipitation: 38.77 inches in 1996

• All-time least annual precipitation: 15.18 inches in 1929

Readings taken week ending Sunday, 4 p.m., Aug. 5