Expect slightly more snow than usual across the region

Every autumn in mid-October, when the geese start flying south and mounds of dry pine needles cover the ground, I issue my winter season city-by-city snowfall predictions for North Idaho and the surrounding regions of the Inland Empire.

As Randy Mann said in last week's installment of 'Gems,' we're seeing the 'rebirth' of a cool and wet 'La Nina' sea-surface temperature event in the waters of the south-central Pacific Ocean that should mean another slightly snowier than normal winter in 2011-12 across the interior Northwest.

We seriously doubt, however, that this winter will match the nearly double normal snowfall total of 121 inches that we saw last season in Coeur d'Alene. As things now stand, I'm predicting approximately 77 to 81 inches of snow this winter at my station on Player Drive and 68 to 72 inches of the white stuff in downtown Coeur d'Alene near the lake.

I should likewise mention that solar activity (sunspots, flares, etc.) also play a role in determining snowfall outlooks for a given region of the country. This time around, we are seeing a far greater number of sunspots than a year ago, hence a bit less snowfall despite the 'La Nina' phenomenon in the Pacific.

Here are my latest city-by city seasonal snowfall predictions, from the most to the least accumulations:

1. Area ski resorts should range from approximately 188 inches at Mt. Spokane to around 340 inches at both Lookout Pass and Montana's Whitefish Mountain (Big Mountain).

2. Priest Lake: 96 to 100 inches.

3. Spirit Lake: 93 to 97 inches.

4. Twin Lakes: 92 to 96 inches.

5. Rathdrum: 90 to 94 inches.

6. Sandpoint: 89 to 93 inches.

7. Wallace: 88 to 92 inches.

8. Kellogg (town): 85 to 89 inches.

9. Hayden Lake (above 2,400 feet): 84 to 88 inches.

10. Athol/Garwood: 83 to 87 inches.

11. Hayden (town): 80 to 84 inches.

12. NW Coeur d'Alene (my station on Player Drive): 77 to 81 inches.

13. Dalton Gardens: 76 to 80 inches.

14. St. Maries: 75 to 79 inches.

15. Hope: 74 to 78 inches.

16. Kalispell, Mont.: 72 to 76 inches.

17. Coeur d'Alene (downtown near The Coeur d'Alene Resort): 68 to 72 inches.

18. Post Falls: 67 to 71 inches.

19. Harrison: 65 to 69 inches.

20. Missoula, Mont.: 61 to 65 inches.

21. Spokane (South Hill): 55 to 59 inches.

22. Spokane Valley: 52 to 56 inches.

23. Bayview: 51 to 55 inches.

24. Spokane International Airport: 49 to 53 inches.

As usual, I reserve the right to raise or lower these projections later this fall if I see major changes in sea-surface temperatures or sunspot activity. Stay tuned ...

Next week, I'll feature the '10 Snowiest Winters' in Coeur d'Alene since 1895.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

As of this mid-October writing, we have yet to see a widespread killer frost across North Idaho. There was some light frost Thursday morning, Oct. 13, in the normally chilly outlying areas, but it was the kind that one sees on the rooftops and on the windshields of cars. I picked our last slow-to-ripen blueberries early this past week.

As far as moisture is concerned, as of Thursday, Oct. 13, we had gauged an above normal precipitation total this month of 1.07 inches on Player Drive in the northwestern corner of Coeur d'Alene. The normal to date was .76 inches for October compared to last October's rainfall to date of 1.44 inches, also during a chilly, wet 'La Nina' event.

In the near-term, Randy Mann and I see briefly drier conditions under high pressure. Temperatures will likewise warm into the mid 60s by Oct. 18-20, not exactly 'Indian Summer,' but nice.

More rain showers will arrive just ahead of Halloween. Temperatures will cool off again, especially by Veteran's Day, Nov. 11, when we may see our first measurable snows of the 2011-12 season in the lowlands.

Randy and I predict that at least Lookout Pass will be open for skiing by the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. The other ski resorts may not have enough snow to open until early December, But, as usual, only time will tell.

Remember, last November was the snowiest on record since at least 1895 in Coeur d'Alene. We measured a whopping 38.3 inches of rather wet snow on Player Drive compared to the November average snowfall of just 8.7 inches in town. This November should bring us around a 'foot' of snow in Coeur d'Alene with upwards of 20 inches expected in the snowier Twin Lakes area and points north.

I'll have more details in our mid to late fall weather next week. Stay tuned.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com