Look for more wide weather 'extremes' in 2012 and beyond

The recent all-time record October snowstorm that crippled parts of New England and the upper Mid-Atlantic states was just another example of our long-standing cycle of WIDE WEATHER 'EXTREMES' that I've been talking and writing about for decades.

This 70-year cycle, that began in 1968, won't end until at least 2038. Its peak should be somewhere between 2024 and 2027, still some 12 to 15 years or more down the climatological highway.

This deadly rampage of nature in the late 20th century and the early portion of the 21st century is very similar to a period 800 years ago at the end of a cycle of global warmth that was more intense than the one that peaked in the late 1990s. Remember, the mighty Vikings actually farmed Greenland around the year 1,000 A.D. At that time, grapes and tomatoes grew as far north as Labrador in North America.

It remains the firm climatological opinion of yours truly that all of these global catastrophes are the result of 'violent clashes' between encroaching colder air that's trying to replace the warmest conditions on this planet since the late 1200s and early 1300s. It's a war between major naturally occurring cycles of temperature 'extremes.'

As I've stated frequently over many years since the mid 1960s, I believe in both global warming and global cooling. These wild 'pendulum swings' in temperature recur in 'natural rhythms' over the millenniums.

Man, in his less than perfect stewardship of the planet, can make these predictable cycles of weather 'extremes' even worse with his polluting ways. Prime examples are the urban 'heat islands' of asphalt and concrete and the coal-fired plants in China and elsewhere. The lack of food and clean water affect billions of people worldwide. The frequent natural disasters just add to the 'misery factor.'

In the near term, both Meteorologist Randy Mann and I believe that 2012 will indeed be a very interesting year weatherwise and otherwise.

We should see a 'solar maxima' in sunspot activity sometime in the next 12 to 18 months. It may be strong enough to adversely affect electronic devices like cell phones, satellites and power companies like during the last sunspot maxima more than 20 years ago in the late 1980s and early 1990s. We are already seeing changes in the Earth's magnetic field that has affected air travel and bird migrations.

As far as sea-surface temperatures are concerned, our cool and wet 'La Nina' event should survive at least into early 2012. The outlook for next spring, however, remains "fuzzy" at best. I would expect that approximately 70 percent of our total winter of 2011-12 snowfall will be measured prior to the third week of January during the 60-day span from Nov. 17 to Jan. 19. But, as usual, only time will tell. La Nina may live on into 2013.

In summation, I believe that almost ANYTHING can happen weatherwise virtually ANYWHERE at ANYTIME on this besieged planet of ours. WILD WEATHER 'EXTREMES' have become the NORM, not the EXCEPTION. That's a FACT!

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

The first 10 days of this November were unusually dry and cold across the Inland Northwest, this despite the normally wet 'La Nina' sea-surface temperature event slowly gaining strength again in the waters of the Pacific Ocean.

As of this Thursday, Nov. 10, writing, we are still awaiting our first measurable snows of the 2011-12 winter season in the lowlands below 2,500 feet. But, our chances of seeing some of the white stuff increase significantly after Veterans Day, as we've been saying for weeks now.

I'm ready. The snow tires are on the car. The snowblower has been pre-started. The tons of pine needles and leaves are piled in rather neat rows along the curbs of the streets. Let it snow ... let it snow ... let it snow.

I should also mention that our capable street superintendent, award-winner Tim Martin, is likewise ready for the expected heavier than normal La Nina-enhanced dumps of snow. Tim's proficient crew does a 'bang up' job clearing out streets each winter.

Our elementary school students have been calling me as to when they can use their sleds and ice skates. They are going to name the first snowstorm of the season "Aca' Berry." All of this winter's snowstorms will be in alphabetical order after berries. This system was created by Erika Skindlov, the first-place winner in Ms. Sue Degraw's fourth grade class at Bryan Elementary. I'm glad to see 'weatherwise kids' and teachers.

Looking farther down the meteorological roadway, Randy and I still predict that at least Lookout Pass will be open for skiing by the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. The other ski resorts may not have enough snow to open until early December, But, as usual, only time will tell.

Remember, last November was the snowiest on record since at least 1895 in Coeur d'Alene. We measured a whopping 38.3 inches of rather wet snow on Player Drive compared to the November average snowfall of just 8.7 inches in town. This November should bring us around a 'foot' of snow in Coeur d'Alene with upwards of 20 inches expected in the snowier Spirit Lake area and points north.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com