Active tropical storm season expected
Editor's Note: Cliff Harris is off this week, so meteorologist Randy Mann is pinch-hitting for this week's "Gems."
An active tropical storm and hurricane season may be just around the meteorological corner. Many forecasters believe this upcoming season has the potential to be very active. Cliff and I also agree with the initial forecasts.
The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was the third most active in history. Only 1995 with 19 storms and 2005 with 28 storms were higher. Last year, there were 19 named storms, with 12 of them becoming hurricanes. Five of those hurricanes were major with a Category 3 rating or higher.
Amazingly, the country did not have significant damage from last season's storms as the upper-level winds directed them away from the U.S. coastlines. Scientists say it is rare that we see an above-normal number of annual hurricanes and not one of them hits the U.S. coastline. For the 2011 season, which is expected to be active, experts say that coastal areas "probably won't be so lucky this year."
According to Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, "we could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995."
Ocean temperatures off the coast of Africa, where many tropical storms develop, are still above normal. Readings are also slightly above average in the Gulf of Mexico. The combination of the warmer waters and not having an "El Nino," the warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperature event along the Equatorial regions, will likely lead to the active tropical storm and hurricane season. During El Nino years, we often see less hurricane formation as the wind shearing effects increase due to changes in upper-level wind flow patterns.
NOAA is forecasting 12 to 18 named storms with winds at or greater than 39 miles per hour. The agency predicts that 6 to 10 hurricanes will form from these storms and 3 to 6 of them could be classified as major storms.
For the 2011 season, Cliff and I see approximately 16 to 20 named storms with 7 to 9 of them becoming hurricanes. Four or five of these potentially deadly storms are expected to become major hurricanes, reaching at least a Category 3 status.
The overall average is 11 named storms with six becoming hurricanes during an entire season, which begins on June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
Extreme weather events continue
Within the past 30 days, we've seen record-breaking tornado outbreaks, historic floods and volcanic eruptions. Based on current information, it looks like more extreme conditions are expected at least into June.
Last weekend, Iceland's most active volcano, Grimsvotn, began erupting. The volcano lies under the Vatnajokull glacier in southeastern Iceland and spewed ash and dust into the air, turning day into night in towns near the volcano. A plume of white smoke was seen approximately 9 miles high, but it was unlikely to cause the air travel problems like the 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano that were due to unusual weather patterns.
This eruption was "much bigger and more intensive" than last year's eruption as it spawned 50 earthquakes in the region. It was also 10 times more powerful than its last explosion, which occurred in 2004.
Here in the U.S., more fierce storms ripped through the Midwest. Last Sunday, a monster tornado that was one mile wide and three miles long hit Joplin, Mo. About 25 to 30 percent of the town was damaged by the twister. More than 130 people were killed.
The same storm produced 70 tornadoes in seven states on Friday with at least 47 of them reported last Sunday. Tornadic activity was seen as far north as Minneapolis, Minn. Many homes were damaged from the strong storm. Another round of tornadoes moved across the Great Plains and Midwest last Tuesday and Wednesday.
It appears that 2011 will likely go into the record books as one of the most active, deadliest and costliest tornadic seasons ever observed in the U.S. More than 500 people have been killed by twisters. Approximately 800 to 1,000 confirmed tornadoes have been reported since April 1. Insurance companies are currently investigating over 1,200 twisters reports with damage estimates between $3 and $6.5 billion. During an average season, the U.S. receives approximately 1,200 tornadoes, four times more than what is seen in Europe. The state that records the most tornadic activity, on average, is Texas with a total of about 110 per year.
In addition to the severe storms, historic flooding has been seen along the Mississippi River. But, heavy flooding is possible in the lower elevations near the Rockies in Colorado and Utah. Snowpacks are currently more than 200 to 250 percent of normal with some parts of the northern Utah mountains reporting snowpacks of 400 percent of normal.
Temperatures in this area were running as much as 10 to 20 degrees below average. Additional snows are expected within the next week. Eventually, readings will start warming to normal levels that will melt much of that snow. The last time the West had a prolonged winter like this was in 1983, when there was massive flooding. During that time, "the Colorado River went absolutely wild for about a month."
Stay tuned. Our period of Wide Weather 'Extremes' is not over.
Weather review/ long-range outlook
As of this Thursday morning writing on May 26, we were enduring another round of rain, wind and much-below-normal temperatures. Snow was falling in the higher mountains as readings were in the chilly 30s.
With record snowpacks still to melt in the nearby mountains, we will likely see more periods of lowland flooding into early to mid June, but the overall weather patterns will be improving over the next several weeks as 'La Nina' continues to weaken in the tepid waters of the Pacific Ocean.
The next six weeks should see a relatively normal late spring pattern of 'sun and showers,' just what our newly-planted gardens will need. But, remember to cover those sensitive plants on the chilly nights. We could see a few frosty mornings in the colder areas away from the warming bodies of water.
If 'La Nina' dies out as expected, the late June through mid September period in North Idaho and the rest of the Inland Empire should turn warmer and drier than usual under a large, stationary ridge of high pressure.
We may see as many as 25 to 30 'Sholeh Days' above 90 degrees this summer with at least 2 or 3 afternoons near or above the century mark.
Total precipitation for the 90-day span between June 21 and Sept. 20 should average only about 60% of normal. This could mean BIG TROUBLE as far as forest and brush fires are concerned. The wet winter and spring seasons have produced a lot of fuels in the nearby forests. Stay tuned for further updates.
Weekly Weather Almanac
n Week's warmest temperature: 69 degrees on May 25
n Week's coldest temperature: 41 degrees on May 28
n Weekly precipitation: 1.04 inches
n Precipitation month to date: 3.56 inches
n Normal precipitation month to date: 2.06 inches
n Precipitation month to date last year: 2.22 inches
n Precipitation year to date: 19.37 inches
n Normal precipitation year to date: 11.55 inches
n Precipitation last year to date: 12.52 inches
n Normal annual precipitation: 26.77 inches
n Total precipitation last year: 33.15 inches
n Precipitation predicted this year: 35.19 inches
n Record annual precipitation: 38.77 inches in 1996
n All-time least annual precipitation: 15.18 inches in 1929
Readings for week ending at 3 p.m. Sunday, May 29