Increased soot is just one reason why the Arctic is still warming

My independent climatological research has shown that, since our 'sun went silent' in 2007, the mid-latitude rural agricultural areas of both hemispheres have cooled nearly a full degree Fahren-heit, less so in the urban 'heat island' regions.

We've had a series of cold and snowy winter seasons followed by wet and cool springs with little sunshine and briefly warm summers that fail to ripen tomatoes and other produce in the backyard gardens. It's mid-spring and our trees still haven't 'leafed out.'

This 2010-11 winter season in Coeur d'Alene, as of the end of a very cold and snowy April, has measured more than 120 inches of the white stuff locally for the third time in four seasons since 2007-08. Only last winter, during a warm 'El Nino' sea-surface temperature event, did we see far less snow than usual at a puny 18.4 inches on Player Drive.

If the mid-latitudes are indeed cooling off following an extended period of warming in the 1980s and 1990s, why then are we seeing the rapid melting of sea ice and snow in the Arctic regions? There are several reasons, read on.

Many scientists are blaming SOOT for the Arctic warming of late. Much of this soot has pushed northward into the polar regions from forest fires in Russia and other drought and fire-ravaged regions. This black carbon is likewise produced by auto and truck engines, aircraft emissions and the widespread North Country use of wood and coal-burning stoves and coal-burning utilities.

Soot warms the atmosphere by absorbing heat from the sun, much like a person wearing a black shirt on a hot day in downtown Coeur d'Alene. When carbon covers snow and ice, solar radiation is absorbed and not reflected.

In February of this year, the United Nations Environmental Program urged global cuts in soot emissions for a variety of reasons, including a rather serious threat to human health from inhaling these lung irritating pollutants. (I hate wood stoves!)

The Arctic Council, which represents the eight countries that border the Arctic regions, is expected to seek extensive reductions in soot production in the next decade. Instead of going 'green,' it seems they'll be going 'white.'

While I do believe that less soot in the Arctic would help reduce the rapid rate of warming in the polar regions, it remains my climatological opinion of sorts that TIME will spell a cooler Arctic ... eventually.

Remember, land surfaces cool faster than ocean waters. There is a definite 'lag effect' in the process of global cooling. The Arctic waters are perhaps five years or more behind the mid-latitudes in the current cycle of cooling.

"Time heals all wounds," including those inflicted on our environment by soot and other pollutants.

As I've pointed out in past 'Gems' columns, the violent 'clashes' resulting from the collisions of widely-opposing air masses, that are both warming and cooling to record levels at the same time, produced KILLER STORMS like the ones that have given us the most tornadoes ever sighted nationally in the month of April, nearly 400 'twisters' in the U.S. as of April 28, many of them deadly.

Randy Mann and I are both looking for a WILD HURRICANE SEASON in 2011. Stay tuned for further updates.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

April of 2011 will go into the record books this Saturday evening, April 30, as the third-coldest such period since at least 1895, when local weather record-keeping began on a daily basis in Coeur d'Alene.

Only April of 1936 and the April of 1951 were colder than this April. As of this writing, Thursday, April 28, we have averaged an incredible 8.3 degrees cooler than normal this month in Coeur d'Alene, very similar to temperatures usually observed during the month of March. That's why our trees haven't 'leafed out' yet. We still haven't had to mow the lawn.

Now only has this April been unusually chilly, but it's likewise been the fourth-snowiest April on record in town, with a March-like 6.9 inches gauged as of noon on Thursday. As of this writing, the forecast called for the chance of some additional measurable snows, even on the valley floor, later tonight or during the early morning hours of Friday, April 29.

Only April of 1920 with 8.2 inches of the white stuff, April of 1933 with 8.0 inches and April of 2008 with 7.5 inches had more snow than this April. Our normal April snowfall is just 0.7 inches. Last April, during a mild 'El Nino' event, we measured 0.6 inches on Player Drive.

The 6.9 inches this April actually beats out the normal March snowfall in Coeur d'Alene of 6.3 inches. This March, in 2011, we gauged an above-normal 7.9 inches of snow, only an inch more than we've received thus far in April.

Our seasonal snowfall total as of noon on Thursday, April 28, stood at 120.3 inches, more than 50 inches above our normal snowfall for an entire season ending June 30 of 69.8 inches.

The current snowfall season of 2010-11 makes an unprecedented three winters out of four locally, since our 'sun went silent' in 2007, with more than 10 feet of snow in Coeur d'Alene and nearly 400 inches of the white stuff in the nearby mountains, where skiing will be possible in many areas well into the month of June.

As far as liquid precipitation is concerned, we had measured a whopping 3.45 inches by noon on Thursday this April. This made April of 2011 the third-wettest such period on record, exceeded only by 4.47 inches in April of 1937 and 3.94 inches in April of 1958.

I predicted a dry and milder Bloomsday on Sunday, but more rains are likely during the first week of May. Our annual rainfall total as of noon on Thursday stood at 15.56 inches, the fifth-most precipitation ever for the first four months of any year since at least 1895.

Longer-term, Randy Mann and I are still hopeful that we'll see a warm and dry summer season in 2011 as 'La Nina' finally dies off in the tepid waters of the Pacific.

A very strong stationary ridge of high pressure could begin in June lasting through July, August and at least early September. This should mean lots of 'Sholeh Days' this summer with afternoon highs near or above 90 degrees. At least three or four days may see afternoon maximum readings near or above the century mark in the Inland Empire.

But, if we do see unusually hot, dry and windy weather this summer, it could spell BIG TROUBLE for this region's parched grasslands and forests. Fires could rage over wide areas of the Far West later in the season. Stay tuned.

SPECIAL NOTE

April of 2011 was the third-wettest April on record since 1895 at 3.70 inches. The snowfall total of 7.6 inches was likewise in third place for April. April of 2011 was the third-coldest April at 6.1 degrees below normal.

ADDED SPECIAL NOTE

Birthday greetings go out to our high school principal, Sterling MacFarlane, who turned 95 years young this past Wednesday. We love ya, Mac!

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. E-mail sfharris@roadrunner.com