The hype of 2012 ... don't lose any sleep over it

By RANDY MANN

This week, we're featuring Randy Mann's views on 2012. Perhaps later, I'll give my predictions, perhaps not.

Many subscribers and students have been asking us about the possibility of cataclysmic events in 2012. There have already been a number of television documentaries and even a major Hollywood movie about 2012 starring John Cusack. More 2012 movies are "in the works."

According to some scientists, on Dec. 21, 2012, the Earth may be facing major changes that could lead to potentially disastrous events later next year.

On that date, the long-term Mayan Calendar will expire. The Mayans were an ancient civilization of people that ruled from the 6th to the 9th Century in Central America. They were 'obsessed' with time keeping and created very accurate calendars. Without the benefits of modern technology, they were able to use lunar and solar cycles to predict eclipses thousands of years into the future.

The Mayan Calendar began, according to scientists, on Aug. 11, 3114 B.C., and is set to expire or reset on Dec. 21, 2012. Each solar year, the Mayan Calendar was only off by only 7 seconds. Therefore, when one does the math, it takes over 5,000 years for their calendar to reset. To put this into perspective, our calendar is off by a quarter of a day (approximately 6 hours) each year. Every 4 years, we add an extra day (leap year) to essentially reset our own calendar. Therefore, our calendar expires every 4 years compared to over 5,000 years for the Mayan Calendar.

The Mayan civilization had numerous books about their culture and astrological data. However, the Spanish conquered the Mayans and destroyed most of their writings. Only four books were saved and they contained information about the calendar and its expiration. According to some scientists, the Mayans only 'hinted' that conditions may be dire toward the end of next year. There is nothing specific in their writings and calendars to predict catastrophic events on Dec. 21, 2012.

In addition to the expiration of Mayan Calendar, there are other astrological events that are expected to occur on Dec. 21, 2012. On that date, the sun, the Earth and the center of the Milky Way Galaxy are going to "line up." This event happens every 25,800 years. Some scientists say that the gravitational pull from this event will trigger earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and other cataclysmic events, possibly even a total magnetic "pole shift."

A total magnetic pole shift occurs when magnetic north near the North Pole becomes magnetic south and vice-versa. There is evidence of this occurring in Earth's past, but the process of this shift usually takes thousands of years. However, we are currently seeing a larger than normal movement of magnetic north. Within the last year, the area of magnetic north has moved approximately 40 miles compared to an average of 3 miles per year. Airports have been forced to readjust their instruments to compensate the small magnetic shift. Some birds have flown into buildings or into the ground after losing their magnetic compasses.

Many of us have heard about the solar cycles from "maxima" to "minima." Recently, solar storms have been minimal, but our sun is currently heading toward a new "maxima" cycle that is expected to peak around December of 2012 or early in 2013. Every 11 years, the sun goes through these cycles, almost on a regular basis. But, there were periods in history when the sun went off its cycle and there were few, if any, sunspots. This occurred from 1645 to 1715, which is called the 'Maunder Minimum.'

Many scientists are predicting that the upcoming solar maxima will be very strong. Late next year, major solar flares ejected from the sun may play havoc with orbiting satellites and even power plants. The last strong solar maxima was in the late 1990s when the Earth's temperature peaked.

The Earth's magnetic field protects us from the harmful radiation the sun emits. Most solar flares are harmless and will put on a light show when they come into contact with our magnetic field called the 'Aurora Borealis' or 'The Northern Lights.' But, there was a very strong solar flare that literally shut down the Hydro-Quebec Power Plant in Canada on March 13, 1989. The solar storm was so intense that the Northern Lights could be seen as far south as Florida and Cuba. Some people thought that a nuclear strike was in progress.

Another solar flare of that size, or even stronger, could disrupt GPS, television, cell phones and other devices dependent on satellites. Some electrical exports have said that our nation's power grids are "fragile" and could easily be damaged or shut down by another major solar storm, which could arrive in late 2012.

The Mayans were not the only culture to predict tough times at the end of 2012. China's oldest text, the 'I Ching,' also known as the Book of Changes, originated approximately 5,000 years ago. It's primarily used for personal fortune telling. Some believe that this text accurately predicted major events in history and it's time line is expected to end around Dec. 21, 2012.

The Hopi Indian Tribe also believes that the Earth will be in a transition period around late 2012. They believed that the Earth has been created and destroyed 4 times and that now we're in a transition phase into the '5th world.'

Of course, the most famous fortune teller of all time was Nostradamus. He lived during the 1500s and published a number of predictions, or 'quatrains,' that described future events. Most academic scholars maintain that his predictions provide no evidence or are even misinterpreted. Nostradamus describes many cataclysmic events, but never specifically mentioned 2012.

There are a number of websites dedicated to the 2012 phenomenon. We will obviously be hearing more about these predictions as the date gets closer. Since the media made such a big deal about the apocalypse forecasts earlier this year, we'll likely see tremendous media hype in the months preceding Dec. 21, 2012.

But, keep this in mind. We've all heard stories and predictions about the "end of days" for years and we're still here. This does not mean that something won't happen, but we're already making vacation plans for 2013. Our suggestion, "don't worry about it."

ADDED CLIFF HARRIS NOTE: Randy, you're always making 'vacation plans.' You would have been one of the first passengers (first class) on the Titanic in 1912! I'm much more cautions. I don't go where 'angels fear to tread.'

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

Following our first two 'Sholeh Days' of the summer of 2011 on July 6 and 7, since then we've seen our first good rains in more than 3 weeks. The moderate to heavy showers, according to the National Forest Service, lowered the local forest fire danger levels considerably.

Longer-term, both Randy Mann and I see lots of warm to hot 'Sholeh Days' at or above 90 degrees in July, August and early September. Precipitation amounts should be less than normal in the region into early October, maybe later, if the expected high pressure ridge remains in a stationary position for at least 90 days.

I still see GREAT WEATHER for this August's annual North Idaho Fair and Rodeo. I look for afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s with very sparse amounts of rainfall.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com