A dead 'La Nina' should mean a hotter and drier summer season and less snow next winter

According to our sea-surface temperature expert, Randy Mann, both Japanese and Australian scientists have stated recently that 'La Nina,' the cooler than normal event in the waters of the Pacific Ocean, has finally "bitten the dust."

In the past four to six weeks, sea-surface water temperatures in the Equatorial zones have warmed to near-normal levels. In fact, a small area of warmer than usual water temperatures has appeared in the past couple of weeks just west of the coast of South America. This could be the sign of a new warmer 'El Nino' in its 'infancy' stages of development. Only time will tell if it will strengthen as expected.

We should point out, however, that there is still an area of cooler than normal waters east of the Hawaiian Islands eastward to the West Coast of the U.S. This undoubtedly contributed to our much cooler and wetter than usual spring season across the northern two-thirds of the U.S. and most of southern Canada. The heavy winter snowpacks, when they finally melted, led to all-time record flooding along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers and their many tributaries in recent weeks.

By extreme contrast, the recent La Nina caused a huge high pressure ridge that's still in place, as of this June 30 writing, in the parched southwestern U.S. from southern California eastward into torrid Texas, where afternoon readings have been above 100 degrees for weeks on end, killing crops in the dusty fields.

This drought and heat pattern actually stretches from California all the way to Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia and the Florida panhandle regions. Crops like corn and wheat have been baled for hay or cut for silage, especially in southwestern Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and New Mexico.

The wildfires in Arizona and western New Mexico have recently been described as "the worst in recorded history." They could burn for several more weeks, if the summer 'monsoon rains' are late or very light.

With warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean waters, Randy and I are looking for a 2011 tropical storm and hurricane season that will likely be far more 'active' than in recent years.

We see approximately 16-20 storms with at least 7-10 of these tropical storms eventually becoming hurricanes. There should be at least 3 major hurricanes this season with at least one of them expected to hit the U.S. coastline, either along the Gulf Coast of the Atlantic Coastline between Florida and the Carolinas, possibly even New England.

One good thing for we residents of North Idaho and the rest of the Inland Empire is that snowfall amounts in the region should drop by at least 50 percent, if we do see a new warmer El Nino in the waters of the Pacific Ocean next winter in 2011-12.

Remember, during the last El Nino event in 2009-10, we only measured a scant 18.4 inches of snow all winter at my station on Player Drive compared with our normal seasonal total of 69.8 inches since 1895.

This past winter, during La Nina, we gauged nearly 'double' the normal snowfall at a whopping 121 inches in town. This was the third winter in the past four seasons that we measured more than 10 feet of snow in Coeur d'Alene.

This past November was the snowiest such period on record with an incredible 38.3 inches of the white stuff in Coeur d'Alene. There were several building collapses. February of 2011 was the seventh snowiest February since at least 1895 with 26.2 inches.

Next week, a solar update.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

June 2011 was the ninth month in a row with above normal amounts of precipitation and cooler than normal temperatures in the Coeur d'Alene area.

As of 10 a.m. on Thursday, June 30, we had gauged 2.12 inches during the 30-day span. That compared to the monthly normal since 1895 of 1.93 inches and last June's whopping total in 2010 of 4.63 inches.

Temperatures in June were once again cooler than normal in the region despite turning warmer during the second half of the month. The weather for IRONMAN on Sunday, June 24, was almost perfect. Lake temperatures near 57 degrees, though, were mighty chilly for the swimming event.

The weather for July 4 looks great, sunny and warm with afternoon highs today near 80 degrees. By midweek, a strong ridge of high pressure may send temperatures into the upper 80s and, possibly, the lower 90s in parts of the Inland Empire. Summer is here, folks.

Longer-term, both Randy Mann and I see lots of warm to hot 'Sholeh Days' at or above 90 degrees in July, August and early September. Precipitation amounts should be less than normal in the region into early October, maybe later, if the expected high pressure ridge remains in a stationary position for at least 90 days.

I still see GREAT WEATHER for this August's annual North Idaho Fair and Rodeo. I look for afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s with very sparse amounts of rainfall.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com