Warm-weather winter

COEUR d'ALENE - Balanced on a narrow red board, Dennis Spencer stood calmly on windswept water.

With a few sweeps of his long paddle, he pushed away from shore and stroked toward empty space, the small gray waves passing bumpily beneath him. He was the only voyager on choppy Lake Coeur d'Alene on Friday afternoon, and that's exactly how he wanted it.

"The last week has been awesome," said Spencer, a transplanted Hawaiian who now lives in Coeur d'Alene. "I like when nobody's on the lake, and you can just kind of have it yourself."

A longtime surfer, Spencer took up serious paddleboarding a couple years ago. He goes out two or three times every week, often paddling around Tubbs Hill or roving across the lake.

Spencer has enjoyed the unseasonably warm temperatures over the past several days, even though winter weather doesn't really bother him.

"If it was snowing, I would come out in the snow," he said.

Not far from where Spencer launched his paddleboard, Jennifer Linnebach of Coeur d'Alene was sitting on a bench near Independence Point, watching the waves roll in.

"Honestly, I'm a little bit worried about it," she said of the spring-like conditions. "All the buds and flowers are going to start coming up," and then they'll probably freeze again.

Linnebach said she would rather have snow this time of year, but if the weather warms up, that's fine, too.

"It's definitely a good break from winter," she said.

Don't put away those heavy clothes just yet, though. According to climatologist Cliff Harris, colder temps and snowfall could be in the offing this weekend. La Nina has started to fade, which might herald a coming cold snap.

"It's been about 10 degrees above normal (in Coeur d'Alene)," Harris said. "But that's going to end."

Throughout January, Coeur d'Alene has been shielded by a high-pressure ridge, Harris explained. Cold air, traveling counterclockwise over the top of the ridge, has more or less bypassed the Lake City and headed for the eastern half of the United States. Since mid-December, that chilly air has been picking up moisture, running into what's called the North Atlantic Oscillation - a deep low over Canada - and dumping buckets of snow on the East Coast.

New York City, Harris reported, has weathered eight snowstorms and 56 inches of snow since Dec. 16.

"This is all because of the ridge, and the ridge is associated with La Nina," he added.

But now the weather situation, ever fickle, is shifting toward wintery.

"If that ridge backs up, and that moisture comes in our area through the back door (from the northeast, as opposed to the west), it could be an interesting pattern," Harris said. "It appears to me that the ridge is backing up. The amount of snow will depend on how much moisture is left when the colder air comes in. We're going to be right on the edge. I think Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry will get more snow than we will."

Powder could fall as low as 2,000 feet on Sunday, Harris said. Coeur d'Alene has received just a few inches of snow this month, but 79.1 inches overall this winter. Of course, much of that total fell in November, breaking records along the way.

If snowfall in 2010-11 reaches 100 inches, it will be the third time in four seasons, Harris noted.

"I still think that the second half of winter will be a better half (less snowy) than the first," he said.

Justin Deal, an 18-year-old student at North Idaho College, took advantage of the snow-less sidewalks on Friday. Wearing a T-shirt, shorts and skateboard pads, his attire was quite summery.

"It's really nice, I like it," Deal said of the weather, as he prepared to roll away. "Today would be really nice (for skating). That's why I'm out, hopefully get some good runs in."