Idaho lawmakers opt for lower tax revenue forecast

BOISE (AP) - Lawmakers have opted for a more pessimistic tax revenue forecast than the one picked by state economists.

Last year, the Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee deemed an outlook by Gov. Butch Otter as too rosy, and picked a tax revenue forecast that was about $70 million less than the one favored by the governor.

This year, both sides appear to be on the same page and have recommended a budget based on a tax revenue forecast that is about $91 million less than the one favored by the Idaho Division of Financial Management.

The recommendation by the Republican-dominated panel would set spending for the next fiscal year, which begins July 1, based on $2.43 billion in tax revenue.

It's the forecast Otter used when crafting his budget recommendation for the next fiscal year, which is based on 3 percent growth rate in tax revenue.

That's significantly below the 6.9 percent growth, or $2.52 billion in tax revenue, state economists projected.

Lawmakers on the committee voted 12-3 to recommend Otter's lower forecast - with a caveat.

The panel agreed to change their recommendation before lawmakers begin setting budgets in February.

If Idaho tax revenue shows signs of improvement in January's tax collections, Lawmakers "will be able to take corrective action should we need to," said Sen. Shawn Keough, R-Sandpoint.

Sen. Nicole LeFavour, D-Boise, opposed the recommendation and cautioned that the more pessimistic view of tax revenue would have consequences.

The governor's budget recommendation includes more than $35 million in cuts to state agencies to help balance Idaho's budget for next year.

"I'm concerned that 3 percent is just extremely, unrealistically low," said LeFavour, D-Boise.