Census plies political landscape

Up and up those northern numbers go, and where we'll be drawn nobody knows. Sometime in the coming weeks Idaho will get precinct-level population figures from the 2010 census. When it does, the state redistricting (legally speaking, "reapportionment") commission will begin its challenging 90-day charge.

Despite Idaho's population growth, heavily focused in the north, we know we won't get an additional congressperson out of the deal. Yet it isn't inconceivable that we'll get a new one. First District Rep. Raul Labrador lives in Eagle. Right now the line runs right through Boise, so depending upon how districts are redrawn, which district Labrador lives in theoretically could change.

Redistricting is only part geography; politics play their part. The total number of seats in the U.S. House - 435 - can't change. So as the population figures grow with each census that figure must be redivided by 385 (435 minus the minimum one per state). That means that while some states gain seats (e.g., Washington and Utah), others must lose a corresponding number of seats (e.g., New York and Michigan). Most, like Idaho, have kept theirs. This also affects the number of electoral votes a state may have.

Given the delicate balance of power in Congress and at election times, reapportioning those districts within states means more than math. The law forbids grossly unequal divisions of population within districts, as well as gerrymandering - manipulating boundaries to give advantage to one group (political, ethnic, religious, etc.). Gerrymandering got its name from 19th century Massachusetts Gov. Elbridge Gerry, who shaped his district like a salamander to his party's advantage. Not that it's easy to prove.

Things look better for Republicans. Just comparing seats gained and lost via the 2010 census with the electoral votes in the 2008 election, "red" states (McCain) gained a net six seats, while "blue" states (Obama) lost six. On the other hand, the fastest growing population in the U.S., Latin-American, tends to vote Democrat.

All this makes redistricting a process to watch closely this spring.

Sholeh Patrick is an attorney and a columnist for the Hagadone News Network. E-mail sholehjo@hotmail.com