Realtors' resolution: Hope for housing market

Some local real estate agents see signs of hope in the housing market in the coming year.

"The good news is that total listings, including residential, are down by about 300 from this time last year," said Pete Faust of Century 21 Beutler and Associates.

There were 7,093 total listings in November compared to 7,388 in October and 7,395 in November 2009 - about a 4 percent drop in both cases, according to the latest report by the Coeur d'Alene Multiple Listing Service.

The decrease was even more significant in the residential market, where there were 3,543 listings in November compared to 3,886 in October for an 8.8 percent decline.

Another positive sign, Faust said, is that home prices have stabilized.

"The median price hasn't hardly changed at all since February," Faust said.

"Unless something dramatic happens, I believed we've reached the bottom of the market and are waiting for it to go back up."

The median price of homes throughout Kootenai County through Nov. 30 was $162,275, 3 percent less than it was last year at this time.

The median price in Coeur d'Alene/Dalton Gardens is $160,400, Post Falls $156,000, Hayden $189,250 and Rathdrum/Twin Lakes $146,450. All the prices are lower compared to last year at this time.

The total year-to-date single-family sales in Kootenai County have dropped 5 percent from 1,583 in 2009 to 1,507 this year, but that isn't a surprise since the federal tax incentives have gone away, agents say.

"Sales continue to be flat as the year winds down," Faust said. "And, because of the effects of the tax rebates last year at this time, the 2010 numbers are falling irretrievably behind last year's."

A whopping 42 percent of the countywide single-family sales in November - 58 of the 136 - were either short sales or bank-owned properties. There were nine short sales and 49 bank-owned properties.

Entry-level homes continue to make up the bulk of the market.

Sixty-eight percent of all the residential sales in November was on homes valued at less than $200,000. In November 2009, those properties represented 73 percent of the sales.

Other strong segments of the market compared to last year are: homes with acreage, with sales up 45 percent for the year; town homes and condominiums, up 39 percent; and waterfront, up 21 percent.

The average number of days on the market for the sold homes last month was 129 days.

New construction continues to make up a small share of the market with only 15 percent of the year-to-date sales being in that area compared to 27 percent last year.

Ray Murphy, a North Idaho Real Estate agent, said he's still concerned about the distressed housing market.

"I believe the current stability is due to the affordability index and a blend of interest rates, average price and average wages offsetting the downward pressure of distressed property sales," Murphy said. "I am hoping mortgage rates can be held low until foreclosures slow down as I am reading foreclosures are expected to be even higher in 2011."

But Murphy believes now and 2011 will be a great time to buy.

"A 1 percent increase in mortgage rates offsets the benefit to the buyer of a 10 percent drop in real estate prices based on current average prices, which results in your mortgage payment staying virtually the same," he said. "I think the chances of both happening in the next 12 months are good."

And, if you have to sell to buy, don't worry, Murphy said.

"You will more than offset what you lose in selling with how cheap the price to buy will be," he said. "Plus, you could still be buying at a lower interest rate than your current rate."

Murphy said even a relatively flat year in 2011 would be an improvement from the free fall during the past three years.

Faust is also cautiously optimistic.

"People continue to move to Kootenai County," he said. "I see things picking up in the new year."