The sun has a huge impact on climate changes

According to NASA, the sun's output of energy was at its lowest level ever recorded by modern instruments at the end of 2008. Solar winds were at a 50-year low. The sun 'went silent.'

From 1991 to 2007, the average yearly sunspot total was 1,099. But, in the entire year of 2008, there were only 55 sunspots, a massive reduction of 95 percent. September of 2008 had no sunspots counted for the first time since 1913.

The latest cycle of low sunspot activity, which had slowly come to an end by early 2010, as the number of sunspots gradually began to increase, was the longest such low sunspot cycle since 1796, when the world was plunged into the 'Dalton Minimum,' a period of exceptionally cold temperatures on a global scale that didn't end until 1830, 34 years later.

If the past is indeed a predictor of future weather trends, the earth should generally be colder than normal for at least the next couple of decades, maybe longer, this despite a brief period of intense sunspot activity expected in 2012, the end of the Mayan calendar.

I should likewise mention that global changes in the concentration of CO2 (carbon dioxide), always follow changes in the earth's temperature, not the reverse.

The oceans are huge collectors of CO2. When temperatures cool during frequent 'La Ninas,' like we've seen recently, the oceans absorb more CO2.

This factor, combined with a much less active sun, increases the global cooling effects. Glaciers begin to advance. The winter seasons become much more severe with bone-chilling sub-zero cold and frequent blizzards across wide areas, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, like we saw in the Midwest this past week.

Record cold temperatures from the Arctic regions ran headlong into a large juicy air mass from the Gulf of Mexico on Feb. 1-2, that resulted in a massive blizzard across the nation's heartland.

Thousands of motorists were stranded for hours and most schools and airports were closed as the monster storm, the worst in decades, delivered a series of knockout punches from Texas northeast to Maine.

More than 20 inches of snow was measured at Chicago, the third largest snowstorm on record in the Windy City. One station in northern Missouri gauged 27 inches of the white stuff. More than a foot of snow crippled traffic from Oklahoma northeastward into Indiana and Ohio. Phone service was out as well in many areas.

To the northwest, on the back side of the blizzard, Havre, Mont., dipped to a record low for Feb. 1 of minus-42 degrees. It was minus-47 degrees at Harlem, Mont., to the east of Havre. Jordan, Mont., plunged to a record low of minus-40 degrees on Feb. 2, Groundhog Day. Normally mild Amarillo, Texas, dipped to -5 degrees early in the day.

"Punxutawney Phil," the world's most famous groundhog, did not see his shadow due to the raging blizzard outside his den early Wednesday. So, the winter-weary northeastern U.S. should have an early spring. Somehow, I seriously doubt this optimistic prognostication.

NORTH IDAHO REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

January was wetter than usual at 4.43 inches of moisture, but snowfall was approximately five inches less than normal at 16.8 inches. The last half of January was practically 'snowless' and quite mild in the lowlands of North Idaho. Temperatures were a couple of degrees warmer than normal until the very end of the month, hence the rain and freezing rain rather than the normal snow.

A weakening 'La Nina' in the waters of the Pacific Ocean probably was at least partially responsible for our decreasing snowfall amounts as of late. As of Thursday, Feb. 3, we still hadn't topped 80 inches of snow for the 2010-11 season despite reaching 70 inches of the white stuff by early January during the winter's first half.

I still believe that we will see at least a foot of snow, however, during the 60-day span from Feb. 12 through April 13 in the lower elevations between 2,000 and 2,500 feet. This means that we should reach my season's target of 92.4 inches of snow.

At elevations above 3,500 feet in the nearby ski resorts, we could see another 2 to 3 feet of snow in the next couple of months, especially if we return to a cooler 'northwest flow' aloft from the Gulf of Alaska. Don't take those snowtires off just yet. Winter's not over.

The spring of 2011 should be a bit cooler and wetter than usual in our neck of the woods providing that La Nina doesn't prematurely fall apart. But, as usual, only time will tell. I'll have more details next week, plus a requested update for the students on "Snowflake Bentley," the leading pioneer in snowflake photography, who was from Jericho, Vt., where Sharon and I lived for eight-plus years between May of 1995 and early August of 2003.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. E-mail sfharris@roadrunner.com