My city-by-city outlooks feature a snowy winter ahead

Every autumn in mid-October, when the geese fly south and the leaves and pine needles cover the ground, I issue my annual city-by-city winter snowfall predictions.

Last year, the winter of 2009-10 was a mild and almost snowless season thanks to a warm ‘El Nino’ sea-surface temperature event in the tepid waters of the Pacific Ocean. We only measured 18.4 inches of snow in 2009-10 compared with the recent all-time record snowy winters of 2007-08, when an incredible 172.9 inches of snow was gauged in Coeur d’Alene, the most since at least 1895, and the 145.6 inches of the white stuff that we measured in 2008-09 during our frigid ‘Silent Sun’ period and the last La Nina cycle.

Speaking of ‘La Nina,’ Randy Mann tells me that it is suddenly strengthening again off the West Coast of South America. Temperatures in the ocean waters are now as much as 4-6 degrees below normal. Sunspot activity, according to Randy, did recently drop to ‘zero,’ but overall activity still remains low in a cycle that is supposed to see an increase in solar activity.

For these reasons, as well as other meteorological and climatological factors, I’m increasing my snowfall projections for the region by an additional 5 percent to 20 percent above normal for the fast approaching 2010-11 winter season, quite a change indeed from a year ago. Our normal seasonal snowfall in Coeur d’Alene since 1895 has been 66.7 inches.

Here are my latest city-by city seasonal snowfall predictions, from the most to the least accumulations:

1. Area ski resorts should range from approximately 185 inches at Mt. Spokane to around 320 inches at both Lookout Pass and Montana’s Whitefish Mountain.

2. Priest Lake: 91 to 95 inches.

3. Spirit Lake: 88 to 92 inches.

4. Twin Lakes: 87 to 91 inches.

5. Rathdrum: 85 to 89 inches.

6. Sandpoint: 84 to 88 inches.

7. Wallace: 84 to 88 inches.

8. Kellogg (town): 83 to 87 inches.

9. Hayden Lake (above 2,400 feet): 82 to 86 inches.

10. Athol/Garwood: 81 to 85 inches.

11. Hayden (town): 80 to 84 inches.

12. Northwest Coeur d’Alene (my station on Player Drive): 79 to 83 inches.

13. Dalton Gardens: 77 to 81 inches.

14. St. Maries: 75 to 79 inches.

15. Hope: 74 to 78 inches.

16. Kalispell, Mont.: 72 to 76 inches.

17. Coeur d’Alene (downtown near The Coeur d’Alene Resort): 70 to 74 inches.

18. Post Falls: 69 to 73 inches.

19. Harrison: 65 to 69 inches.

20. Missoula, Mont.: 61 to 65 inches.

21. Spokane (South Hill): 55 to 59 inches.

22. Spokane Valley: 52 to 56 inches.

23. Bayview: 51 to 55 inches.

24. Spokane International Airport: 48 to 52 inches.

As usual, I reserve the right to raise or lower these projections later this fall if I see major changes in sea-surface temperature or sunspot activity. Stay tuned ...

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

As of this mid-October writing, we still haven’t seen a killer frost yet this fall in the Coeur d’Alene area. There was some light frost Wednesday morning, Oct. 13, in the usually colder outlying areas, the kind one sees on roofs and the tops of cars. Our tomatoes have been covered and have ripened rather quickly in the past few days, as we’ve seen several consecutive sunny afternoons with highs in the pleasant mid 60s following morning fog.

As far as moisture is concerned, the first half of October was slightly above normal in rainfall at 1.44 inches. This compared to the Oct. 14 normal month to date figure of 0.86 inches and last October’s 1.24 inches to date.

Longer-term, Randy Mann and I still see above normal moisture in North Idaho and the rest of the Inland Empire in the 90-day span from late October through late January, again thanks, at least in part, to the strengthening of the cooler La Nina in the waters of the Pacific Ocean and a rather ‘blah’ sunspot cycle.

Temperatures, in turn, should be slightly below normal overall in the next three months resulting in the above normal snowfall amounts that we’re currently forecasting.

This should mean that the local ski resorts will be able to open for business in time for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. As I said last week, Lookout Pass may actually open prior to Thanksgiving, if the resort gauges above normal amounts of snow as expected during the first two weeks of November. But, only time will tell. Stay tuned.

By the way, our first measurable snow of the season in the lowlands below 2,300 feet, should arrive sometime around Veterans’ Day, Nov. 11. But, a few large, wet flakes of the white stuff may be seen above 3,000 feet as early as Halloween in some areas to the north and east of Coeur d’Alene. Again, only time will tell.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. E-mail sfharris@roadrunner.com