No crystal ball predictions here

Because of our profession, we Realtors are often asked "How's the market?" As a sign of the trying times we are in as a nation, the question has changed somewhat. Now, what people most often want to know is, "When will the market improve?"

We are hard pressed to come up with a concrete answer to that question. All of the research and the statistics we create on a daily basis are a good indication of where we have been, but are of little assistance in predicting the future.

A rough draft of our September statistics has just been printed and we are poring over those to try and assimilate some type of forecast. After the Federal Reserve announcement that they were prepared to do more to support an economic recovery, we have seen our historically low interest rates go even lower. In many cases those rates are below four percent which is unheard of and could help stimulate some real estate purchases by lowering monthly payments. These lower payments could make a difference to those who were narrowly missing loan qualifications due to their debt to income ratio.

According to the September stats for the Coeur d'Alene Multiple Listing Service (MLS) our market continues to stabilize. The figures show that we are maintaining a healthy lead over our 2009 sales in number of units sold as well as the total dollar volume of last year. Although we are not ahead by as far as we were, just 17 percent at the end of September instead of the 21 percent at the end of August, we are still ahead. Our total dollar volume is up by nearly $50 million even though our average sales price still languishes at nearly 5 percent below last year's average.

For the first time in recent history our average home price for Coeur d'Alene/Dalton is flat, or less than 1 percent below last year, while the north county figures show an increase for the second month in a row.

As evidence our falling prices are reaching their end, we have seen diminishing decreases all year. For September our overall decline was 5 percent MLS wide while in August our average prices were 6 percent below the same time period in 2009 for single family homes on less than an acre. For all residential types, including manufactured housing and high end waterfront homes, our average loss from last year's prices was at 4.8 percent.

Although our figures are reported on a Year To Date (YTD) basis we can compare month to month. When we use this approach we see that September 2010 reflects some market improvement. As an example, in September 2009 more than 70 percent of our residential sales were below $200,000. This year that percentage is reduced to less than 60 percent while homes that sold from $300-500,000 represent 18 percent of our sales. Last year homes in that price range only represented less that 7 percent of total sales. It stands to reason then, that more activity in higher price ranges means more ready buyers.

The movement in these higher budget homes may also indicate that prices have adjusted. Some homes that may have been on the market for more than $500,000 probably have adjusted to fall into that lower priced category.

We will provide more detail on our September statistics next week, but for now, we are encouraged at the level of activity. Whether or not the latest lowest interest rates will do more to stimulate our market, we can only wait to see. Even without those interest rate reductions though, judging from the trends in the first three quarters of 2010, we are beginning to see signs of stability that would indicate modest gains over 2009. After more than two years of market declines we may end the year flat, which will still be better than continuing a backward motion.

Although we do have a crystal ball, just like yours, it is cloudy so we are unable to predict the future and are destined to watch, on a daily basis, for signs.

For a safe trip home, call a Realtor. Call your Realtor or visit www.cdarealtors.com to search properties on the Multiple Listing Service or to find a Realtor member who will represent your best interests.

Kim Cooper is a real estate broker and the spokesman for the Coeur d'Alene Association of Realtors. Kim and the association invite your feedback and input for this column. You may contact them by writing to the Coeur d'Alene Association of Realtors, 409 W. Neider, Coeur d'Alene, ID 83815 or by calling (208) 667-0664 with your questions or commentary.