Thoughts and Perspectives

Wow!!!! A jobless recovery. Now that companies have figured out how to run profitably with less manpower, hiring will be dormant. This column predicted 10 percent unemployment, and my opinion is that it could go even higher. When we last wrote in February, we were slowly coming out of the recession and everyone was optimistic...except me. Last year at this time, I wrote that Wall Street had to many potholes to fill and we were going to be the victims of a false recovery. I believe that is very accurate. Let me explain again.

Freddie and Fannie are still in the market for bailout money, so the bloodletting hasn't stoped. They should be eliminated. Don't look for that to happen soon. The housing market, in my opinion still has another 5 percent to 7 percent drop before leveling off. Recovery to 2007 prices will take until at least until 2015. One in seven homes in this country are VACANT!! Bank foreclosures are still rising, more banks are failing and being taken over by the fed. I predicted 150 banks would fail in 2010. We are well passed 100 at this point.

While retail sales have come back slightly, remember the depressed prices a year ago. Retail sales are closer to 2008 levels and realisitically have not changed since then.Inventories are more in line, so prices are higher.

Retail employment is down reflecting this trend. My predicdition is that summer retail sales will be flat followed by a moderate gain this fall. Holiday sales are up for grabs at this point, but I don't anticipate strong sales next winter. Profits in this area will be higher than 2009.

Health care costs still continue to rise. The health care bill did not address problems very well. While it is much to early to predict what this terrible bill has accomplished, we do know the government will start to tax immediately. The first tax going into effect is the 10 percent tax on tanning salons. How cool is that. What a sham. The best thing we could do is to turn the current health care bill aside and start over. It's really not that difficult. If we depend on the states suing the federal government to turn health care aside, that probably will be a failed attempt. It could take years, and every month that goes by will make it more difficult to create meaningful legislation to correct the situation. Your vote this November will be the most important of your life.

And to my favorite subject, our seniors... We took it in the shorts with this overhaul of our health care program. Even the AARP got snowed into thinking this was a good thing.

My columns in the weeks ahead will address, in part, items that seniors should be aware of. While I don't specifically address health care issues in my upcoming seminars (ad on this page) I do suggest how you could preserve your assets to help pay for your health care expenses, if you have them.

Jack Schroeder is a licensed insurance agent in Idaho and Washington. he can be reached at (208) 773-2507.