A new 'Little Ice Age' may be waiting in the wings

One of our Harris-Mann Climatology clients, a farmer in southern Manitoba, believes that we're already in the initial stages of a new 'Little Ice Age.'

As I mentioned last week, Walter H. says that he hasn't had normal crop yields "since the sun went silent in 2007." Millions of acres in southern Canada will go unseeded in 2010 due to a record cold and wet spring and early summer across much of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Similar adverse weather conditions have cut planting in parts of neighboring Montana, the Dakotas and Minnesota in the U.S.

It's likewise been abnormally wet and cold during the past three years across much of Europe, Asia and the former Soviet Union, probably the result of the lack of sunspot activity and generally cooler ocean temperatures despite the recent short-lived El Nino in the waters of the Pacific that is now dead. We are now in a La Nada (in between El Nino and La Nina) and soon could see the developing of another chilly La Nina, which could lead to the return of much colder and especially snowier winter seasons like we saw in this part of the country in 2007-08 and 2008-09.

Dr. Iben Browning Jr. predicted 40 years ago that we would see these "cycles of wide weather 'extremes' by early in the 21st Century." My friend was right.

But, what about Walter's claim that we've already entered a new 'Little Ice Age?' My friend Robert Felix has been saying this for many years now.

Just this past week, a prominent Croatian scientist, renowned physicist Vladimir Paar, from Croatia's Zagreb University, warned that "a new Ice Age could start in just five years."

Here is his June 29 article featured in the Croatian Times:

"While climate change campaigners say global warming is the planet's biggest danger, Dr. Paar says most of central Europe will soon be covered in ice.

The freeze will be so complete that people will be able to walk from England to Ireland or across the North Sea from Scotland to northern Europe.

Professor Paar has spent decades analyzing previous ice ages in Europe and what caused them.

"Most of Europe will be under ice, including Germany, Poland, France, Austria, Slovakia and a part of Slovenia," said the professor in an interview.

"Previous ice ages lasted about 70,000 years. That's a fact and the new ice age can't be avoided.

"The big question is what will happen to the people of the Central European countries which will be under ice?

"They might migrate to the south, or might stay, but with a huge increase in energy use," he warned.

"This could happen in five, 10, 50 or 100 years, or even later. We can't predict it precisely, but it will come," he added.

And the professor said that scientists think global warming is simply a natural part of the planet.

"What I mean is that global warming is natural. Some 130,000 years ago the earth's temperature was the same as now, the level of CO2 was almost the same and the level of the sea was four meters higher.

"They keep warning people about global warming, but half of America no longer believes it as they keep freezing," he said.

And he added: "The reality is that mankind needs to start preparing for the ice age. We are at the end of the global warming period. The ice age is to follow. The global warming period should have ended a few thousands of years ago, we should have already been in the ice age. Therefore, we do not know precisely when it could start - but soon."

The Zagreb-based scientist says it will still be possible for man to survive in the ice age, but the spending on energy will be enormous.

"Food production also might be a problem. It would need to be produced in greenhouses with a lot of energy spent to heat it", commented the professor, who remains optimistic despite his predictions.

He said: "The nuclear energy we know today will not last longer than 100 years as we simply do not have enough uranium in the world to match the needs in an ice age. But I'm still optimistic. There is the process of nuclear fusion happening on the Sun. The fuel for that process is hydrogen and such a power plant is already being worked on in France as a consortium involving firms from Marseille and the European Union, the US, Russia, China, Japan and South Korea. The head of the project is a Japanese expert, and former Japanese ambassador in Croatia", Vladimir Paar revealed.

He said the building of the new technology power plant will take at least another 10 years.

"In 40 years we'll know how it functions. That would be a solution that could last for thousands of years. We have a lot of hydrogen and the method is an ecological one", the professor concluded."

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

The last third of June, as we expected, turned bone-dry and much warmer. We soared to a near 'Sholeh Day' reading of 88 degrees on Monday, June 28.

We finished June with 4.63 inches of precipitation for the month, second only to the 5.09 inches of rain that was gauged locally in Coeur d'Alene 63 years ago in 1947.

Other soggy Junes included 4.62 inches in 1971 and 4.45 inches in 1913. Last June, in 2009, we had 1.75 inches of precipitation, just shy of the normal since 1895 of 1.78 inches.

The 13.01 inches since March 1 in Coeur d'Alene through June 30 was the third highest rainfall total for the 116-day period on record. Only 1997 and 1957 had more moisture at 13.48 inches and 13.15 inches each.

Longer term, after a few early July showers that are actually needed in some areas of North Idaho, I see a quick return to much warmer and drier weather conditions across the Inland Empire, quite a sharp contrast indeed from the chilly June that was 3 degrees below normal.

Afternoon highs in the region should reach the upper 80s and lower 90s by July 7-10. Even hotter weather is likely later this month, especially around the 'full moon' cycle when we may see temperatures near or even above the century mark. I'll have more details next week.

SPECIAL NOTE

On Sunday, July 4, our two little 'firecrackers,' poodle twins 'Sholeh' and 'Genny,' turned 1 year old. They are thriving! Sholeh is big for a toy poodle at nearly 11 pounds. Genny weighs about 3 pounds less, but is extremely active.

Sharon and I "love them to death."

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. E-mail sfharris@roadrunner.com