Weather Gems Feb. 22, 2010

For the first time in 14 years, since the extremely harsh winter east of the Rockies in 1995-96, Lake Erie has completely frozen over. I remember this winter well as I was living in bone-chilled Vermont at the time.

The winter of 1995-96 was the same season that Tower, Minn., set the Gopher State's all-time record low temperature of minus-60 degrees at 6 a.m. on Groundhog Day, Feb. 2.

Niagara Falls also froze over in 1995-96. But, thus far, this hasn't happened in 2009-10 despite much colder than normal temperatures.

The frozen Lake Erie will likely cut down on lake-effect snows in the next few weeks at places like Cleveland, Ohio; Erie, Pa.; and Buffalo, N.Y. As frigid winds from the Canadian Arctic flow across the ice rather than the usual warm water by comparison, they tend to generate fewer and lighter snow squalls. February through mid March snowfall dropped 40 percent in 1996 near frozen Lake Erie.

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has warned people "to use common sense and not try to walk across the lake to Canada."

Many people have been out fishing and ice skating on six-inch ice near the shores of Lake Erie. Luckily, no accidents have been reported. In 1996, at least 3 people died after falling through the ice after it suddenly cracked.

Lake Erie normally freezes over about once or twice a decade. With an average depth of just 62 feet, it is the most shallow of the five Great Lakes. Only small portions of lakes Michigan, Huron, Superior and Ontario are currently frozen over.

To answer one subscriber's question, we tend to be much warmer west of the Rockies with far less snow than normal whenever Lake Erie freezes over. However, the following winter season is typically colder and snowier than usual west of the Rockies, especially in the Inland Northwest, as the cold air 'backs up' and El Nino dies in the Pacific Ocean.

I have a strong hunch that we'll need those dust-covered snowblowers locally in North Idaho next winter in 2010-11.

In December 1996, following a severe ice storm in November, we gauged a whopping 57.7 inches of snow in Coeur d'Alene, more than 40 inches above our current total seasonal snowfall for all of 2009-10 since last October of just 17.5 inches.

Stay tuned, folks, the BIG SNOWS WILL RETURN ... this is a promise ... actually a WARNING!

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

The first 18 days of February were completely snowless in the Coeur d'Alene area for the first time since the inception of local record-keeping of weather statistics in 1895. Even the most snowless February ever in 2005 had 0.2 inches of the white stuff on the 5th, the only snow of that entire 28-day span.

We also set a new record for the least snow since Jan. 1 in town by the 18th of this month. The puny 2.4 inches this year was less than half the 5.5 inches of snow gauged in Coeur d'Alene in the same 49-day period at the beginning of 1934, some 76 years ago. The 1933-34 winter season had the least snowfall overall at just 11.2 inches. The following winter, however, measured more than 6 feet of snow, as a strong El Nino was quickly replaced by cold and snowy La Nina event in the waters of the Pacific Ocean. The same thing could happen in the upcoming 10-12 month period. Stay tuned as always.

To answer another subscriber's question, this winter remains in the 'bottom 10' as far as seasonal snowfall is concerned. I've listed them below:

1. 1933-34 ... 11.2"

2. 1943-43 ... 13.6"

3. 1987-88 ... 14.1"

4. 1914-15 ... 14.3"

5. 1941-42 ... 14.4"

6. 1966-67 ... 15.8"

7. 1908-09 ... 16.1"

8. 2009-10 ... 17.5"

9. 1929-30 ... 17.8"

10. 1899-1900 ... 19.4"

But, remember, our snowfall season isn't over yet. Between now and the first week of April, another 10 to 20 inches or more of snow could fall in the area putting our final total up to between 30 and 40 inches, still more than two feet less than our normal seasonal snowfall since 1895 of 66.7 inches. Last season's final total at the June 30 end was a whopping 145.6 inches, which was second only to our all-time snowiest winter season the year before in 2008-09 when we gauged an incredible 172.9 inches of the white stuff in Coeur d'Alene.

In the near-term, I see some measurable snows returning to Camelot by the end of February into early March as colder air from the Gulf of Alaska mixes-in with Pacific moisture enhanced by a weakening El Nino.

The Jan. 1 through Feb. 18 seven-week span ending Thursday was likewise the warmest such period in town averaging 6.7 degrees above normal.

But, unlike February of 2005, which was likewise the driest February on record in Coeur d'Alene with a scant .17 inches of moisture, we've had near-normal 1.64 inches of precipitation this February.

Skiing hasn't been that bad overall as moderate snows have fallen in recent weeks above 3,500 feet. By comparison, in February of 2005, they "booed me in church" due to the lack of snow on the nearby slopes. (Yes, I changed churches!)

Finally, I'm still expecting a slightly cooler and wetter than normal spring season overall, but there will certainly be delightful periods of warm and sunny weather conditions interspersed with the flower-sprouting showers.

Our summer of 2010 weather still looks great ... SUNNY and a bit HOTTER than usual for the season.

Have a happy week!

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. E-mail sfharris@roadrunner.com