Record snows may mean disastrous flooding by early spring east of the Mississippi River

People in the eastern U.S. will be talking for generations to come about the back-to-back blizzards of February 2010 along the most populous stretch of the Atlantic Coastline (Where is Al Gore when you need him?).

The lives of more than 50 million people were disrupted this past week by as much as four feet of snow in just six days in parts of Pennsylvania, Maryland and West Virginia. Nearly three feet of snow was gauged at Washington, D.C.'s Dulles Airport during the 144-hour span ending at 7 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 10. More than 230,000 government employees again stayed home, most for nearly a full week.

By Wednesday evening, when the heavy snows had diminished to light flurries, Baltimore had reached an incredible 72.3 inches of snow for the 2009-10 winter season, easily breaking the previous seasonal mark of 62.5 inches set back in the stormy winter of 1995-96, when Randy Mann and I and our families were stuck in snowbound Vermont. The normal snowfall for an entire winter season ending June 30 in Baltimore is just 22 inches.

By late in the evening last Wednesday in Philadelphia, the seasonal snowfall had already reached 70.3 inches, topping the previous record of 65.5 inches in 1995-96. Pennsylvania shut down most of its roads, warning drivers that "they were risking their lives" on the state's highways. Philadelphia's normal seasonal snowfall since 1884 is just 20 inches.

The Washington, D.C., area reported 54.9 inches of snow for the season by late Wednesday evening, barely topping the long-existing mark set 111 winters ago in 1898-99 of 54.4 inches. Washington, D.C.'s normal seasonal snowfall since 1884 is only 18 inches.

Heavy snows also fell last Wednesday in New York and New Jersey where hundreds of flights were cancelled and millions of school children had only their third "snow day" in the past six years. The flight cancellations in Washington, D.C., were the most in recorded history during the five-day period from Friday evening, Feb. 5 through late Wednesday, Feb. 10.

This has been the first winter on record in the Mid-Atlantic states with four storms exceeding 10 inches of snow. The previous record was three snowstorms of that magnitude in 1995-96.

Believe it or not, another somewhat weaker snowstorm will hit the heavy-traffic corridor from Washington, D.C., northward to Boston, Mass., by the time one reads this column on Presidents' Day, Feb. 15.

Additional snowstorms will likely add to the all-time record seasonal totals in late February and early March along the Atlantic Coastline as unseasonably cold air from Canada associated with our 'Silent Sun' runs headlong into El Nino-enhanced juicy storms pushing eastward from California.

By extreme contrast with the record snows along the East Coast, as of early Thursday, Feb. 11, we had only measured 17.5 inches of snow in Coeur d'Alene all season, more than 100 inches less than last winter at the same time when we were seeing similar problems with collapsing roofs that East Coast residents are currently enduring in 2010.

Even worse problems weatherwise (and otherwise) may be in store for areas east of the Mississippi River in the late winter and early to mid spring period from the potentially disastrous combination of melting snows and heavy rains.

Severe flooding may occur in coming weeks and months, especially along the Illinois and Ohio rivers. Millions of acres of rich farmland may remain under water deep into the spring planting season. The Mighty Mississippi River may likewise see widespread flooding problems, possibly matching the devastation levels seen during the so-called "Floods of the Century" in 1993. Only time will tell. Stay tuned.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

It's still possible that we will see another 'foot' or more of snow in our part of the country from late February through early April during an expected wetter and cooler six-week cycle on the 'back side' of a weakening El Nino warm-water event in the waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean.

I wouldn't be too surprised if March turned out to be the snowiest month of the entire winter season with perhaps double or triple the normal snowfall of just six inches. December had 10.2 inches of the white stuff before Old Man Winter vanished to points east. We saw flocks of Canadian 'Honker' Geese flying north across town this week.

But, it's also possible that our virtually 'open' winter of 2009-10 will remain unusually mild and almost snowless. Remember, since 1895, there have been 16 winter seasons with less than two feet of total snow, including the rather recent winters of 1987-88 (14.1 inches) and 2002-03 (23.8 inches). Our normal seasonal snowfall since 1895 has been 66.7 inches in Coeur d'Alene.

In other words, it tends to either snow a lot or very little in Camelot. It's the case of 'feast' or 'famine' when it comes to the white stuff in Coeur d'Alene. It's a 'temperature' and 'elevation' consequence, pure and simple. El Nino and La Nina rule!

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. E-mail sfharris@roadrunner.com