The El Nino may be weakening, but our silent sun is coming back to life

In the past two weeks, I've had at least 20 phone calls and e-mails asking me, "what does Randy Mann say about the El Nino and sunspots?" Here are his reports:

Many scientists, including our own Professor Randy Mann who teaches at North Idaho College, still say that we have a moderate El Nino in the tepid waters of the south-central Pacific Ocean. Warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures extend near the West Coast of South America westward across the Equatorial regions. Readings south of the Hawaiian Islands along the Equator are generally near 3 degrees above normal levels. But, regions to the southwest of the Hawaiian Islands are as much as 5 degrees above normal levels.

However, sea-surface temperatures near the West Coast of South America are still cooling down. Temperatures along the coast south of the Equator are now averaging between 2-3 degrees below normal levels. The area of cooler waters have also expanded a bit near the central portions of the South American Coastline over the last few weeks. This may be the first signs of weakening with this El Nino.

Despite some cooling, there is much more warm water than cold water. In fact, some of the warmer sea-surface temperatures have expanded a bit toward the coast of California. This would explain the above average precipitation levels in the Golden State.

It appears that El Nino has 'peaked,' but will be with us at least until the early spring. But, it's possible that we may be talking about a new La Nina, the cooler than normal sea-surface temperature event, toward the middle to the end of 2010, especially if the cooler waters continue to grow.

Based on this information, no changes are seen yet in our long-term forecasts, but stay tuned.

OUR 'SILENT SUN' IS SHOWING SIGNS OF NEW LIFE

According to Randy, until recently, the Sun was practically devoid of sunspots, or storms on its surface. For much of 2008 and 2009, solar storms were rather infrequent with most of the last two years having many days without any sunspot activity.

Since the beginning of 2010, there has been an increase in the number of sunspots with an average of 20-30 per day with a high of 40 on Jan. 23. There were only two days within the last 30 days with a zero reading, which were on Jan. 6 and 18. With the recent increase in activity, it's quite likely that we may have already seen the bottom of the solar "minima" cycle.

Remember, this solar minimum has lasted much longer than most of the scientists' projections. We were supposed to start seeing new sunspot activity around the middle of last year. It's not impossible that the number of sunspots may return to 'zero,' but I wouldn't bet on that yet.

There were approximately a dozen solar flares in January, which may also indicate that we're finally heading toward the "solar maxima" cycle. This new cycle is expected to peak in late 2012, in terms of solar activity. How strong this new cycle will be still remains to be seen. Some scientists claim this new solar maxima will be the strongest in history, while others say that it will be weak. Only time will tell.

As we get closer to December of 2012, we'll probably hear more about this solar cycle as its 'peak' may occur at the same time that the Mayan Calendar ends.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

If El Nino does weaken in the next several weeks, we could see both colder and even snowier conditions push into our part of the country later this month into March and even early April, especially at elevations above 3,000 feet.

This could mean improved late-season ski conditions despite mostly rain at the lower valley levels below 2,500 feet. Even elevations as low as 2,000 feet may, however, see some snow at times, particularly in the early morning hours when temperatures will be near the freezing mark.

As I've said so many times, for every 'EXTREME' weatherwise (and otherwise), there's often an 'OPPOSITE EXTREME' lurking around the meteorological corner in the wings.

As Press subscriber Tom Latham pointed out this past week, we were much COLDER than normal at the start of this 'fickle' 2009-10 winter season from early October through mid-December.

Between Oct. 10 and 12, we saw the most brutal early season coldwave locally in recorded history, at least since the inception of Coeur d'Alene weather statistics in 1895.

It was a record 19 degrees on Player Drive at my station on Oct. 10. The 20 degrees on Oct. 11 was likewise a record minimum for the date. But, the bone-chilling 15 degrees on Columbus Day, Oct. 12, was the most frigid reading ever observed in town so early in the season. Daytime maximum temperatures were also records for so early season cold at 45 degrees on Oct. 10, 42 degrees on Oct. 11 and just 40 degrees on Columbus Day, hardly BBQ weather!

The first measurable snowfall of the season occurred shortly before Halloween on Oct. 29 when the day's high was only 39 degrees. Just four-tenths of an inch was gauged at my station, but up the road at Rathdrum and Spirit Lake, each town measured 2 inches of the white stuff.

Another 4 to 6 inches of snow from three separate snowstorms fell during November locally with enough snow in the mountains to start the ski season 'on time' or even, in the case of Lookout Pass, a bit ahead of schedule.

The snows, although light, continued into mid-December. The mercury plunged to a near-record low of minus-2 degrees in Coeur d'Alene on Dec. 8. It was minus-6 degrees at Athol and minus-10 degrees at Priest Lake.

Another 4 inches of snow fell at the end of December, giving us a White New Year's Day, if not a White Christmas.

Then, came the BIG WARMUP associated with El Nino. Winter suddenly VANISHED! All of the snow went east of the Rockies.

This past January was an amazing 6 degrees above normal in Coeur d'Alene and nearly 8 degrees above normal in Spokane. It was our fifth-warmest January in town since at least 1895, probably longer.

Our puny monthly snowfall in January was just 2.4 inches, almost 20 inches below normal. Only January of 1944, during the latter stages of World War II, had less snow at 1.4 inches.

Thus far in early February through noon on Thursday, the month was snowless on Player Drive in Coeur d'Alene with mere 'traces' elsewhere below 3,000 feet.

Our seasonal snowfall remained at 17.5 inches, barely one-third of normal. Last year, as of Feb. 4, we had gauged a near-record 116.1 inches of snow exceeded only by the whopping 122.8 inches to date in the all-time record snowfall season in 2007-08, when we finished the season on June 30 at an incredible 172.9 inches.

But, remember, folks, the meteorological 'worm' could soon 'turn.' Stay tuned.

SPECIAL NOTE: The 'Emerald Isle' is IRELAND, not England. I knew that. I'm Irish. Sorry for the careless mistake.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. E-mail sfharris@roadrunner.com