Solar storms have decreased again
I'm filling in for Cliff on one his 'rare' short vacations. He and his wife, Sharon, are celebrating Cliff's mother's 94th birthday in Port Angeles, Wash. He will back in his office by this morning. - Meteorologist Randy Mann
During a cycle when the sun was supposed to see an increase in sunspots, it again 'went quiet,' from May 9 through 19. After June 26, however, there were an average of 10 to 25 sunspots observed daily on the sun's surface. By mid-August, the average number sunspots dropped to about 10-15 per day. Amazingly, by early last week, solar activity has again returned to 'zero' for three straight days. So who knows what's going to happen next?
During the "peak" of solar activity in late 1990s, we were seeing 200-300 solar storms each day. The next solar "maxima" cycle is due in late 2012. Many scientists suggest that the upcoming maxima will be very strong, but there hasn't been much evidence yet to support this possible event, but that could change quickly. Stay tuned for additional updates.
EARLY FALL FORECAST ... By Randy Mann and Cliff Harris
The first day of the new fall season is September 22 at 8:09 p.m. Many folks have already said how much they have enjoyed our summer season and really didn't want it to end. However, there were some who stated that they are happy with the cooler weather.
El Nino has been replaced by the cooler than normal sea-surface temperature event, La Nina. Although I do expect to see some occasional showers over the next three to four weeks, the annual fall rains should begin as usual in late September and early October, especially if La Nina continues to strengthen as predicted. Frosts and freezes will also be possible, even at the lower elevations, by early October. At elevations above 3,500 feet, we've already seen some frosty temperatures. It was a frigid 28 degrees near Twin Lakes on Tuesday morning, Aug. 24.
The normal precipitation for September is 1.58 inches and 1.93 inches in October. Moisture totals should be near average levels in September, but above normal levels the following month, especially toward the middle to the end of October.
Snow is not very common in October, but elevations above 5,000 feet may see some measurable snowfall. The month's most snow ever measured in Coeur d'Alene happened on Oct. 22, 1957. We measured 6.8 inches of the white stuff on that day. With the increased precipitation, temperatures this October should be slightly cooler than normal. If all goes according to plan, many area ski resorts may be open in time for Thanksgiving.
It also appears that December will be colder and snowier than normal, which should also provide some great skiing conditions.
As we've mentioned in previous articles, we had a strong La Nina and very little sunspot activity during the very harsh winters of 2007-08 and 2008-09. Based on current patterns, I do expect to see a lot more snow when compared to the open winter of 2009-10. However, it doesn't look like the pattern for the all-time record snows from late 2007 to early 2009. Stay tuned.
RANDY'S COLLEGE INFORMATION ... By Cliff Harris
I've received a number of calls asking about the Physical Geography course that Randy Mann teaches at North Idaho College. According to the North Idaho College description of the course, Physical Geography is an introduction to the earth's physical systems and the interaction among the atmosphere (air), hydrosphere (water), biosphere (region of life on earth) and the lithosphere (the earth's land). It emphasizes the atmospheric sciences (weather and climate), landforms, water resources, and soils. Some of the subject matter also includes the study of earthquakes and volcanoes.
Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. E-mail sfharris@roadrunner.com