Russian drought among worst in history

As of this Thursday, Aug. 5, writing, many of the destructive wildfires sweeping at least 13 provinces in western Russia were still "out of control." About 50 people had died and thousands were homeless. Millions of hectares of once golden wheat were being described as "a blackened wasteland." Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin temporarily banned all wheat exports early Thursday.

The worst drought in Russia in at least 130 years, since regular weather record-keeping began in 1880, will likely persist until mid to late August or longer. Afternoon high temperatures on Wednesday reached a record 100 degrees Fahrenheit in Moscow, where the blistering summer of 2010 will live in 'weather infamy' for decades to come.

In the past four weeks, wheat prices in Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis and elsewhere have 'skyrocketed' more than $3.30-a-bushel. This has been "great news" for farmers in North America. In other words, Russia's weather woes have been America's gain, much like during a similar killer drought and heat pattern in 1973, which likewise saw soaring grain and soybean prices on a global scale at the same time that we saw oil shortages and long lines at the gas pumps across the country.

I should likewise mention that record drought and soaring heat have also killed crops and livestock across eastern Europe, the Black Sea regions and western Asia this torrid summer of 2010.

I'm still forecasting record global food shortages by late 2011 and early 2012. Famines will kill millions of people, especially children and the elderly, in Asia and Africa alone. (Maybe the Mayans will be right after all!)

Pakistan will have massive food shortages following its worst flooding in recorded history this past week. At least 1,200 people were killed, crops were destroyed and millions left homeless after more than a 'foot' of rain fell in the northwestern corner of the country in less than 48 hours.

Scores of bridges, roads and buildings were washed away by the monsoon torrents. Boats and helicopters were the only means of transportation. The total infrastructure of the area was destroyed. The U.S. provided $10 million in emergency assistance to help fleeing civilians that left everything behind.

To answer a Coeur d'Alene Press subscriber's question, the worst summer heatwave and drought in Europe's recorded history occurred in 2003, when as many as 52,000 people died. Most of the victims were seniors living alone without family in homes lacking air conditioning or children under the age of five. In France alone, the record high temperatures above the century mark killed more than 11,000 people in July and early August of 2003.

The same thing happened in Chicago in July of 1995. Triple-digit readings produced heat indices of near 120 degrees for days-on-end. It was the elderly, the poor and dozens of young children that died. Their fragile bodies just couldn't cope with the dangerous heat.

Several people were killed this past week in the Little Rock, Ark., area by heat indices approaching 120 degrees. On Tuesday, Aug. 3, Little Rock reported an all-time record high of 107 degrees at 3:30 p.m. CDT. One station near Fort Smith, Arkansas reached 111 degrees. It was 110 degrees on Aug. 2 just south of Monroe, La. It was 108 degrees near Jackson, Miss., on Aug. 2. Dryland crops south of I-70 have suffered severe heat and dryness losses this blistering summer of 2010.

To answer another Coeur d'Alene Press subscriber's question, the all-time highest world temperature of 136 degrees Fahrenheit was recorded in Libya in North Africa on Sept. 13, 1922 during another period of global warming. (There have been many.)

The North American all-time record maximum reading of 134 degrees Fahrenheit was observed at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, Calif., nearly a century ago on July 10, 1913.

Our all-time hottest afternoon in Idaho's climatic history occurred during the 'Dust Bowl Era' of the 1930s. On July 28, 1934, the mercury soared to 118 degrees at Orofino, elevation 1,027 feet. Coeur d'Alene's all-time high reading was a sweltering 109 degrees on Aug. 4, 1961.

Washington State's all-time high was also 118 degrees set at Ice Harbor Dam on Aug. 5, 1961. On July 5, 1937, it was 117 degrees at Medicine Lake, Mont., for the Treasure State's all-time hottest day.

NORTH IDAHO'S WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS:

Following the second wettest June on record in the Coeur d'Alene area - 4.63 inches - since at least 1895, we've been extremely dry during the past five weeks since early July's record rain of .57 inches on July 2.

As of 10 a.m. on Thursday, Aug. 5, we had gauged only .13 inches since July 2, the sixth driest such period on record since 1895, a prime example of our prolonged cycle of WIDE WEATHER 'EXTREMES,' the strongest such pattern in at least 1,000 years since the days of Leif Ericsson, the Viking chieftain, who many believe was the actual discoverer of North America nearly 500 years before Columbus.

Longer-term, I'm still expecting most of the shower activity in the next six weeks or so, between now and mid-September, to remain in the higher mountains to the west, south and, especially to the north and east of us near the Canadian border and in Montana. It rained every day last weekend in Whitefish, where my son Brian and I celebrated his 30th high school reunion. (We still had lots of fun despite the soggy weather.)

The weather prospects for the year's edition of the North Idaho Fair and Rodeo late this month between Aug. 25-29 still look good. I plan to be in the Coeur d'Alene Press booth between 4 and 6 p.m. on Wednesday, Aug. 25, the first day of the popular event.

The annual fall rains should begin as usual in late September and early October, especially if the new cooler and wetter 'La Nina' in the waters of the Pacific Ocean continues to strengthen as predicted.

The upcoming winter of 2010-11 will be MUCH COLDER and SNOWIER than the El Nino-warmed, almost snowless 2009-10 season.

Here's a 'safe bet.' We will see more snowfall than last winter (18.4"), but less total snow than the previous winter season in 2008-09 (145.6"). I'll take all wagers and give my winnings to the church. Thus far, I've had no 'even money' takers.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. E-mail sfharris@roadrunner.com.

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