No hurricanes yet in the Atlantic Ocean

Over the last 20 years, it seemed that some type of record was broken when referring to the Atlantic and Caribbean tropical storm and hurricane seasons. From 2019 to 2024, the average number of named storms was above normal with a record-breaking 30 storms in 2020. However, as of the weekend, there have been seven named storms, but no hurricanes in the Atlantic or Caribbean, and we have passed the normal peak of activity. It’s likely that the strong warmer than normal sea-surface temperature event, El Nino, is largely responsible for the lack of tropical storm formation due to strong wind shear. But, in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, there have been 17 named storms, more than usual for the season.

It is rare for no hurricanes to form in the Atlantic and Caribbean waters for an entire season. According to NOAA, the last time there was no hurricane formation in the Atlantic was 112 years ago in 1914. In fact, during that season, there was only one named storm.

Based on the reconstruction of past sea-surface temperature data, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified 1914 and 1915 as strong El Nino years. This was determined by the measurement of the air pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. When the values are negative, below -7, with a lower pressure in Tahiti and a higher one in Darwin, it’s usually referred to as an El Nino. In 1914, the index was around -15 to -20, likely to indicate a strong El Nino event.

NOAA’s database to track named storms in the Atlantic and Caribbean dates back to 1851. Other years without a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean include 1907 with only five named storms. There were four named storms in 1925 without a hurricane. After the introduction of the satellite era in the 1960s, there were three hurricanes in 1983. For comparison, from 2000 to 2025, there were an average of 16.2 named storms with 7.6 hurricanes.

The measurement of hurricanes has evolved from simple observations by sailors to sophisticated satellite, aircraft, radar, and many computer-based systems. Before modern instruments, tropical storms and hurricanes were documented mainly through ship reports, coastal observations, and damage surveys.

One of the earliest important developments was the barometer. This allowed observers to measure the region’s atmospheric pressure. A rapidly falling pressure often provided evidence that a powerful storm was approaching, which was useful for better navigation.

During the 19th century, standardized weather observations became increasingly important. The U.S. Signal Service, established in 1870, began collecting weather observations from stations across the country. In 1890, the U.S. Weather Bureau took over national weather forecasting responsibilities.

Another major advance came with the development of the wind anemometer, which measures wind speed and air velocity. However, measuring hurricane winds was difficult because the strongest winds frequently occurred over the ocean, far from observing stations. Meteorologists and other observers therefore relied heavily on ship observations and estimates based on a storm’s pressure and structure.

The beginning of aircraft reconnaissance revolutionized hurricane measurement. In 1943, during World War II, a U.S. military pilot intentionally flew into a hurricane near Galveston, Texas. This demonstrated that aircraft could obtain direct measurements from inside tropical cyclones. Regular hurricane reconnaissance subsequently developed, allowing meteorologists to measure central pressure, wind speed, temperature, and storm structure directly. However, flying into these storms has proven to be very dangerous as over 50 lives have been lost since 1944.

Another major breakthrough was weather radar, which was developed out of World War II. By the mid-to-late 20th century, there were organized radar networks to track fast-moving storms. The advancement of radar, especially Doppler Radar, has helped forecasters to observe precipitation bands and the structure of hurricanes as they approached land and became particularly valuable for determining the location of the hurricane’s eye and monitoring changes in its circulation.

The development of weather satellites during the 1960s transformed hurricane observation and forecasting. Satellites could see storms over enormous areas of ocean where there were few or no direct observations. The first TIROS satellites in the early 1960s provided some of the earliest useful satellite views of tropical cyclones. Today, modern satellites are heavily dependent upon and provide continuous information about cloud structure, atmospheric temperature, moisture, rainfall, and ocean conditions. Hurricane forecasting has greatly improved and will likely continue to do with better technology.

In terms of our local weather, despite the much-needed moisture this month across the Inland Northwest, the U.S. Drought Monitor continues to show severe to extreme drought conditions across the region. As of Sept. 22, extreme drought is being reported across parts of Spokane and Kootenai Counties.

September will finish with above normal moisture across many stations in the Inland Northwest. The long-range computer models are still indicating a relatively dry weather pattern for the first several weeks of October as the strong high pressure system rebuilds across the West. As I’ve mentioned earlier, drought patterns are difficult to break and with the expected super-strong El Nino, the overall circulation may not switch to the much wetter side until November or December.

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Contact Randy Mann at [email protected].