Schools caught between birthrate and migration

What do you do when historical trends no longer reliably predict future plans? This is the challenge Idaho educators face as lower birth rates are offset by in-migration. 

Don't get me wrong, Idaho remains one of the country's most family-oriented states, but rising housing, food and childcare costs have become major factors in family planning. When you add that people prioritize careers and education over marriage and settling down, it's no surprise birth rates are declining. 

Nationally, the general fertility rate has fallen from 69.5 births per 1,000 women ages 15-44 in 2007 to 53.1 in 2025, a decrease of roughly 24%. During the same period, the nation's total fertility rate fell from about 2.1 children per woman, considered replacement level, to roughly 1.6 children per woman today. 

Idaho's numbers follow a similar trend. In 2024, the state's fertility rate was 58.6 births per 1,000 women ages 15-44, and its total fertility rate was estimated at 1.79 children per woman. Research comparing state trends indicates Idaho's fertility rate has declined by roughly 20% since the mid-2000s. Even with this decline, Idaho remains among the nation's highest-birthrate states, but the trend is impossible to ignore. 

This is where things get challenging for local schools, especially in parts of North Idaho. 

With birthrates falling for two decades, schools would normally expect enrollment to follow. In most parts of the country, that's exactly what has happened. 

Migration has offset the declining birthrate and even led to substantial growth in some areas. People continue moving to Idaho for its natural beauty, affordability and political climate, creating unexpected enrollment growth. 

Smaller districts may not immediately notice when a graduating class of 70 is replaced by a kindergarten class of 90. 

But for a much larger district like the Coeur d'Alene School District, a projected 5% enrollment increase means finding space for roughly 600 students, essentially an entire school's worth. 

North Idaho College also reported substantial enrollment growth during the 2026 spring semester. 

Growth pressures don't lower expectations for student achievement, but if long-term planning hasn't supported growth, administrators must find ways to adapt. 

For school leaders, that creates a challenge that requires additional funding, creativity or both. More often than not, the result is uncertainty. 

School boards and administrators often find their budgets no longer match demand. They must decide how many teachers to hire, how to maintain or expand facilities, and how to do it all on taxpayer-funded budgets. 

There's no right answer for navigating something so unpredictable, but some answers are certainly wrong. 

The easiest way to support these administrators is to stay patient and extend grace when things don't go as planned. 

Public schools are uniquely affected because they cannot simply pause services while demographic trends sort themselves out. They must be prepared for the students who arrive this year, regardless of what birthrate projections suggested five years ago. 

Inevitably, some solutions won't work. Demographic trends were once one of the most reliable tools for determining future needs, and with that certainty gone, we must extend grace to those trying to solve both long- and short-term problems. 

Idaho's direction moving forward looks dramatically different from what its past would suggest. Since 2000, we've added nearly one million people to our population and are projected to add a few hundred thousand more by 2030. This population growth has put us in a position to gain a third congressional district. 

Birthrates may be going down, but if migration to Idaho continues, it wouldn't be surprising if many of these younger newcomers don't fall in love with Idaho and stick around themselves. The challenge for educators, policymakers and taxpayers will be figuring out how communities like those in North Idaho will navigate the change with so little information. 

There might not be a clear answer today, but it's a question worth asking.