A very active Pacific hurricane season

It’s been a “tale of two oceans” this summer and early fall season. As of the weekend, there have now been 20 named storms in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, including 10 hurricanes. Eight of those hurricanes were a Category 3 or higher, which is classified as a “major.”

The Pacific hurricane season officially began May 15, 2026, and, like the Atlantic and Caribbean, will end Nov. 30, 2026. Thanks to the very strong El Nino in the waters of the south-central Pacific Ocean, there have been three Category 5 hurricanes. This season currently ties 1994, 2002, and 2018 for the most Category 5 hurricanes.

One of those hurricanes, Lala, hit the Big Island of Hawaii in August. The last time the Big Island took a direct hit from a hurricane was way back in 1871. Hurricane Lowell, the second Category 5 hurricane did impact Kaua’I County in Kauai. The storm resulted in over $110 million in damage for the island as a total of approximately 21 inches of rain fell in 72 hours in September.

The third Category 5 hurricane in September was Hurricane Polo. It was also the second most intense Pacific hurricane based on its central pressure of 26.34 inches. The lowest pressure of a Pacific hurricane was Hurricane Patricia in 2015 with a pressure of 25.75 inches.

Hurricane Polo did make landfall in Baja California as a Category 2 hurricane Sept. 29. The hurricane brought severe coastal flooding, winds of over 110 miles per hour and large storm surges to the coastal regions of Mexico. Once it crossed Baja Mexico, Polo made a second landfall near Guaymas, Sonora as a tropical storm. However, the storm did produce up to a foot of rain in the region.

Mexico wasn’t the only area affected by Polo. According to various news sources, the remnants of the storm produced widespread flash flooding across Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa and Texas. It was the reported that rain was falling at the rate of about 4 inches per hour. Lincoln, Neb., picked up a record-breaking 6.1 inches of rain with nearly 5 inches in Omaha from the storm.

The next hurricane that forecasters were watching is Hurricane Rachel. The storm did hit Category 2 status but is not likely to intensify to a Category 5.

Most tropical systems that form in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean will travel westward. However, there have been cases when one of these storms will move northward toward California. As the system moves over colder waters to the north, it will usually fall apart, but still may bring some moderate to heavy rainfall to Southern California.

In recorded history, there has only been one instance when a hurricane that formed in the Eastern North Pacific that reached California. It happened way back in 1858 and was called the San Diego Hurricane. Very heavy rainfall was reported that led to extensive property damage. In today’s dollars, it’s estimated that the cost of that storm would have been around $500 million.

In Idaho, even though we are far to the north of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, there were two instances in history when the remnants of a named storm brought moisture to the state. In 1976, Hurricane Kathleen weakened to a tropical storm and brought record rainfall to California. Parts of Idaho received over two inches of rain from that system. In 1982, Hurricane Olivia dropped nearly two inches of rain over Idaho when it weakened to a tropical depression. Also, with the warmer sea-surface temperatures and a very active Pacific hurricane season, it’s not impossible that our state could receive some moisture from a tropical system before the season expires.

By contrast, the Atlantic and Caribbean waters have been relatively quiet this season. As of the weekend, there still has not been a single hurricane. However, there have been eight tropical storms, and the season does not officially end until the end of next month.

As I mentioned last week, it is very rare for no hurricanes to form in the Atlantic and Caribbean waters for an entire season. According to NOAA, the last time there was no hurricane formation in the Atlantic was 112 years ago in 1914. In fact, during that season, there was only one named storm.

In terms of our local weather, the drier than normal weather pattern still persists across the Inland Northwest. As of early October, 11.29 inches of rain and melted snow has fallen in 2026 at Cliff Harris’s station in Coeur d’Alene. As we’ve mentioned, the driest year in Coeur d’Alene’s recorded history was in 1929 with 15.18 inches. From Jan. 1 through Oct. 5, 1929, 10.25 inches of moisture was measured, so we’re slightly ahead of 1929.

The long-range forecast models are continuing to show a strong high pressure system over the western U.S. through at least the middle of the month. Drought patterns are difficult to break and with the expected super-strong El Nino, the overall circulation may not switch to the much wetter side until November or December.

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Contact Randy Mann at [email protected].