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A monster El Nino may be on the horizon

by Randy Mann / Weather or Not
| May 18, 2026 1:05 AM

A new forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is that a “super El Nino” is likely late this year, perhaps starting in October. The odds are about 65% that this new warm water phenomenon will be one of the strongest in recorded history as sea-surface temperatures would be at least 3.6 degrees above normal. Oceans waters are also warming faster than originally anticipated and scientists anticipate a new El Nino will be declared at any time between now and July.

As I mentioned several months earlier, a strong El Niño occurs when unusually warm ocean temperatures develop in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, altering atmospheric circulation and weather patterns across the globe.


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