Oscar predictions: ‘Sinners’ vs. ‘One Battle After Another’ basically everywhere

With really only two movies in the hunt to win Best Picture at Sunday’s Academy Awards, it should be easy to make predictions down the entire ballot.

The problem is “Sinners” and “One Battle” are nail-bitingly close in many other categories.

How you distribute the trophies between the two will ultimately make or break your Oscar pool? Do people still do Oscar pools? Eh, at least host Conan O’Brien will be reliably funny.

Below are some mildly educated predictions for every category, as well as what I think should win if I had a vote.

Best Picture: Momentum says “Sinners” takes the top prize after securing Ensemble and Best Actor wins at last week’s Actor Awards, formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards. That room erupted. However, math still points to a “One Battle After Another” victory, with wins at the Producers Guild of America Awards, Director’s Guild and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. Combine all the crossover voters, as well as the fact that “One Battle” won on the year’s only other preferential ballot at the Producers Guild of America Awards. and it will probably be enough to overcome “Sinners.”
Will win: “One Battle After Another”
Should win: How about a tie between the two obvious standouts of 2025?

Actor: The momentum for “Sinners” probably most impacts this race, with Michael B. Jordan securing the SAG last week. That trophy doesn’t always translate to Oscar — Demi Moore knows all too well about this — but the other two genuine competitors, Timothée Chalamet for “Marty Supreme” and Wagner Moura for “The Secret Agent” haven’t won anywhere in quite a while. Still, any of the three could realistically win, as Leonardo DiCaprio and Ethan Hawke haven’t collected much hardware this season.
Will and should win: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”

Actress: The easiest category of the night, as Jesse Buckley in “Hamnet” hasn’t lost at any major awards show this year.
Will win: Jesse Buckley, “Hamnet”
Should win: Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You”

Supporting Actor: Sean Penn apparently doesn’t care about his awards, having skipped his victories at both the BAFTAS and SAG for “One Battle After Another.” Winning both of those sure makes it look like he’s going to win his third Oscar. Still, one can’t help but wonder and hope that either Stellan Skarsgård for “Sentimental Value” or Delroy Lindo for “Sinners” might finally break through and be celebrated for their long and distinguished careers.
Will win: Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Should win: Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”

Supporting Actress: Probably the toughest acting category of the night thanks to a split of the precursors. What started like a Teyana Taylor steamroll has morphed into tight competition, with Wunmi Mosaku for “Sinners” recently winning BAFTA and Amy Madigan for “Weapons” recently winning SAG. Madigan is the only nomination for “Weapons,” which makes her an underdog against contenders in Best Picture nominees. On the other hand, she’s a beloved industry vet.
Will win: Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Should win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”

Director: No matter what happens in Best Picture, the long overdue Paul Thomas Anderson seems like a virtual lock for directing “One Battle After Another,” especially after his Director’s Guild victory.
Will and should win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”

Adapted Screenplay: Luckily, “One Battle” and “Sinners” compete in different writing categories.
Will and should win: “One Battle After Another”

Original Screenplay: This all but assures “Sinners” director Ryan Coogler also walks away with an Oscar on Sunday as screenwriter of the film.
Will and should win: “Sinners”

Casting: A new category this year, making it somewhat difficult to figure out how voters will interpret it. Will they pretend it’s basically a “Best Ensemble” prize, or will they reward the person who excelled in casting, or made the most unconventional choices? In any case, “Sinners” looks like the one title that could align with any methodology.
Will and should win: “Sinners”

Editing: Often a category that goes along for the ride with a Best Picture victory. If you follow that logic, which I do, the smart bet is to take the Picture frontrunner.
Will and should win: “One Battle After Another”

Cinematography: Surprisingly tough category. The heart says “Train Dreams,” but the head points to either “One Battle” or “Sinners.” Both movies look terrific, but I keep thinking about how “One Battle” shoots those rolling hills in the climactic car chase.
Will and should win: “One Battle After Another”

International Feature: Both “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent” scored Best Picture nominations, making either of them likely to win here. “Sentimental” has more nominations, but “The Secret Agent” appears to be the more seen film. At this point, I’m just hope-dicting.
Will and should win: “Sentimental Value”

Animated Feature: No reason to stop the global phenomenon now. Will and should win: “K-Pop Demon Hunters”

Documentary Feature: The most widely seen film is Netflix’s powerful “The Perfect Neighbor.” Safe bet, though “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” more closely aligns with the type of recent wins. Always keep an eye for something unexpected here.
Will and should win: “The Perfect Neighbor.”

Original Score: Another “Sinners”-“One Battle” battle. Both composers are well-loved. Go with your gut.
Will and should win: “Sinners”

Original Song: “Golden” from “K-Pop Demon Hunters” became a huge radio hit. That should be enough for a win, though “I Lied to You” is the centerpiece moment in “Sinners.”
Will and should win: “K-Pop Demon Hunters”

Visual Effects: Despite a poor showing with nominations overall, nothing can likely stop James Cameron’s epic.
Will and should win: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”

Sound: Best Picture nominee “F1” performed well within its various technical guilds, including sound. The Academy also loves racing movies in this category.
Will and should win: “F1”

Production Design, Make/Hairstyling and Costume Design: Based on its precursor hauls, expect Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” to make a strong showing in these “below-the-line” categories. Whatever you think about the movie overall, these technical elements are undeniable.
Will win: “Frankenstein," times three.

The Shorts: Always the toughest categories to predict. I haven’t seen a single one, not that it necessarily matters when it comes to predicting these categories. I drew my predictions from what little consensus exists among the national Oscar pundits:
Live Action Short: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”
Animated Short: “The Girl Who Cried Pearls”
Documentary Short: “All the Empty Rooms”

    This image released by Warner Bros. Pictures shows Teyana Taylor, left, and Sean Penn in a scene from "One Battle After Another."
  

    This image released by Warner Bros. Pictures shows Josh Brolin in a scene from “Weapons.”
  

    This image released by Focus Features shows Jessie Buckley in a scene from "Hamnet."