Our strong solar cycle may have peaked

Our sun has been recently making news headlines as we’re still in a strong solar cycle that has generated numerous solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). CMEs are a large release of plasma and accompanying magnetic field from the sun’s outer layer of its atmosphere. They will often follow solar flares and be released into the solar wind.

We’re currently in solar cycle 25, which is the 25th since 1755, when the recording of solar sunspot activity started. Since the beginning of solar cycle 25 in December 2019, the number of sunspots, or storms on the sun, has been the highest since 2002. Scientists recently stated that we are likely to reach the peak of this cycle by late this year, but anticipate more solar and geomagnetic storms over at least the next several years beyond 2025. This current cycle is expected to flip to a “solar minima,” or solar cycle 26, around 2030.

With the high number of sunspots in this current cycle, there is a concern for additional solar flares that would have the potential to damage electronic equipment or satellites that orbit the Earth. The most powerful solar flares are X-class storms.

On May 13, there was an X-class flare that hit the Earth with intense radiation bursts. The following morning, another X-class solar flare erupted from the sun, and according to Livescience, led to radio blackouts across North America, South America, Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and the Middle East. There was also a coronal mass ejection of particles released from the sun on that date.

This solar “maxima” cycle has been strong. In May 2024, there was a series of very strong solar storms that generated extreme solar flares. When these solar flares, which consist of charged particles from the sun, interact with our magnetic field, they will give off light, also known as the northern lights. During a strong event, people in the northern latitudes will often be treated to a magnificent light show called the Aurora Borealis, or the northern lights. The Southern Hemisphere will also experience these light shows.

There was another solar storm back in 2003, called the Halloween solar storm, that was so strong that it was observed by spacecraft that were in operation to study other planets. For example, the CME emission was felt by the Mars Odyssey, the Ulysses near Jupiter and the Cassini spacecraft that was heading toward Saturn. Even Voyager 2, which was beyond our planetary system, detected the storm.

One of the strongest solar storms in recent history is the infamous Carrington Event in 1859, when a super-strong solar flare hit the Earth. During this period, auroras were seen in areas as far south as Cuba and Hawaii. Telegraph systems all over North America and Europe stopped working and some generated sparks and fires.

According to an article by space.com, geological evidence indicates there was a supermassive solar storm about 14,000 years ago that took place during the last Ice Age. By examining fossilized tree rings, researchers from the Oulu University in Finland discovered a spike in the carbon-14 isotope. It’s estimated that this particular solar storm was “500 times” more powerful than the 2003 Halloween solar storm and even stronger than the Carrington Event in 1859.

During a solar storm, charged particles from the sun will disrupt our planet’s magnetic field. They will usually raise the natural levels of a radioactive isotope called carbon-14. If a solar storm of this magnitude were to strike the Earth, it’s likely there would be widespread disruption of the planet’s infrastructure that includes power grids, satellite systems and various communication networks.

In terms of our local weather, it looks like May will be another month with below normal precipitation across many areas of the Inland Northwest. As of the weekend, less than a half-inch of rain has been reported at Cliff’s station in Coeur d’Alene. The normal precipitation for May is 2.37 inches. At the Spokane International Airport, rainfall totals have more than doubled the amounts in Coeur d’Alene. Nearly an inch of rain has been reported in Spokane, which is only slightly below their normal for the month.

The next chance for any significant rainfall in the region is during the first 10 days of June. The long-range computer models are indicating that the strong ridge of high pressure over the western U.S. may weaken to allow some Pacific moisture into the area. Many of the computer models have been showing a trend of increased moisture, but when the storms move inland from the Pacific, they are weakened as they run into the strong high-pressure ridge.

After the middle of June, long-range forecasts are pointing to drier and warmer than normal weather across the Inland Northwest. In fact, forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center are also pointing to a dry and very warm to hot summer season. Stay tuned.

• • • 

Contact Randy Mann at [email protected].