Could we have the driest year since 1929?

It was a dry April across the Inland Northwest. Only 0.54 inches of rain fell at Cliff’s station in Coeur d’Alene last month, compared to the average of 1.77 inches. At the Spokane International Airport, April’s precipitation total was just 0.39. Their April normal rainfall is 1.25 inches. Our seasonal total in Coeur d’Alene thus far is 7.71 inches. The normal rain and melted snow at this time of year is about 10 inches.

We believe that May is a “key” month to determine if we’re going to have a continuation of drier-than-normal weather across the region. Currently, the long-range computer models are predicting an increase in rainfall toward the middle of the month. We have noticed the forecasts of additional storms moving into the Inland Northwest were expected as soon as late April. However, many of these storms that were expected to produce some decent amounts of rainfall have not been as strong due to a strong ridge of high pressure over the western states that has led to drier-than-normal conditions.

Earlier in April, the U.S. Drought Monitor was showing that Coeur d’Alene and much of North Idaho were not experiencing any drought or abnormal dryness. But the latest information has changed with moderate to severe drought expanding, which now includes Coeur d’Alene. The mountain regions did receive some moisture last month, but severe drought conditions persist, which is not good news for potential fires later in the spring and summer season.

According to the National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook, average wildfire conditions are predicted across the northwestern U.S. through June. Their forecasts also state that warmer and drier conditions are expected in the northern half of the western U.S. this month and continue into July. The chances of significant wildfires are forecast to climb to above normal levels in July and will likely have similar conditions in August and perhaps into September as well.

In 2024, the northwestern U.S. suffered through one of the worst fire seasons in decades. Close to 1 million acres burned in Idaho last year. Most of the devastating fires were in the southern part of the state, around Boise and the Payette River mountains. Human activities likely contributed to more than 50% of the 1,450 fires that were reported across the state in 2024.

Across the U.S., according to the National Interagency Coordination Center, there were 64,897 wildfires in 2024. This was higher than the previous year, as there were 56,580 wildfires. Nearly 9 million acres were burned across the country last year.

Speaking of dry weather, the driest year since 1895 in Coeur d’Alene occurred in 1929 when only 15.18 inches fell. During that year, moisture totals from January through April stood at 6.43 inches. Only 1.02 inches of moisture fell in May of that year. Conditions were looking better during the first 20 days of June 1929 when 2.09 inches of rain fell. However, the supply of moisture was cut off as a mere 0.15 inches of rain fell during the rest of the summer season.

In most years, especially since 2000, after a dry summer, our region will recover with near-to-above-normal moisture during the fall season. However, in 1929, October was drier than normal and only 0.05 inches of moisture fell in November. There was some recovery in December with 4.17 inches, which was one of the few above normal months of rain during that year. Despite the increase in rain and snow at the end of 1929, it turned out to be the driest in Coeur d’Alene’s recorded history.

The following rain and snow season, only 17.49 inches fell in Coeur d’Alene in 1930. Prior to 1929, it was another below-normal year for precipitation, as 18.70 inches fell. On the flip side, from 2004 to 2020, seasonal moisture totals were near to above normal levels. In fact, 2012 was the wettest year in recorded history with 43.27 inches. Amazingly, from July 1 through Oct. 12, only 2.84 inches of rain fell in Coeur d’Alene. After Oct. 12, the skies opened up and 13.96 inches of rain and melted snow were measured through Dec. 31, 2012.

As we’ve been saying for years, we have cycles of wet and dry years. We’ll have to wait and see whether the wetter weather pattern develops across the Inland Northwest around the middle of the month and continues at least through the early part of June. If moisture does increase, then we would likely not challenge the all-time driest year in Coeur d’Alene.

The average precipitation for May in Coeur d’Alene is 2.37 inches. Officials are concerned that if the drier-than-normal weather pattern continues across the region, the fire season for 2025 could be another tough one for the northwestern U.S.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com.