Volcanic eruptions and a new method for prediction

Over the last month, volcanic eruptions have once again made headlines across the globe. One of the most active volcanoes in the world is Italy’s Mount Etna, and it has a very explosive history over the last 500,000 years.

On June 2, the volcano sent massive plumes of dust, ash and smoke over 20,000 feet into the air. According to Space.com, this is the 14th episode since last March. This last event was listed as a medium-sized eruption and sent tourists fleeing when the volcano suddenly erupted. Fortunately, the eruption was not a massive one, as it ended the same day. This recent event was Mount Etna’s biggest since 2021.

Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano also continues to erupt. Scientists say that last month’s eruption sent lava over 1,000 feet into the air. Since Dec. 23, eruptions of this volcano have been essentially “on and off,” with some of these eruptions lasting as long as a week. Although the Hawaiian volcano is not explosive like the ones in Indonesia or in the western U.S., it does produce high levels of volcanic gas and other volcanic fragments that can fall to the ground. It can also generate a hazardous air pollutant, a type of smog called “vog” that can lead to breathing problems and other health issues.

In Guatemala, authorities had to evacuate more than 500 people as the Fuego volcano started to spew ash and gas last week. This volcano in Central America is the region’s most active.

As reported in March, another volcano near Anchorage, Alaska, called Mount Spurr, has been rumbling. It’s an 11,070-foot-tall volcano that is covered with snow and as a result, the U.S. Geological Survey and Alaska Volcano Observatory recently issued an alert. This indicates that the volcano, which is located about 75 miles west of Anchorage, has an increasing chance of erupting later this year. Scientists at the Alaska Volcano Observatory say that if an eruption is about to occur, then they would “expect to see further increases in seismic activity, gas emissions and surface heating.”

Thanks to advanced satellite technology, scientists may have found vital clues to determine if a volcano is about to explode. One of the indicators that volcanologists currently use is the seismic, or earthquake activity, within the area of the volcano. They also look for changes in the ground height and the emissions of sulfur dioxide.

Space.com also states that scientists will monitor carbon dioxide emissions, which are closely tied to the magma near the Earth’s surface. However, monitoring the carbon dioxide levels is more difficult due to the widespread presence of the gas.

Scientists have recently determined that the increased carbon dioxide emissions may be one of the first signs of an upcoming volcanic eruption. Recently, new methods have been developed to monitor the trees surrounding the active volcano. Scientists state that the increase of carbon dioxide near the volcano will make the leaves of the trees greener as the gas will improve the trees’ health. This new technology will help scientists by not having to go to the dangerous volcanic sites in an attempt to measure carbon dioxide levels.

Scientists are working to better understand and predict volcanic eruptions. Currently, it’s estimated that there are over 1,500 active volcanoes on Earth. In the U.S., there are about 170 active volcanoes. Most of them are in Alaska, where eruptions often occur every year. According to the website, volcanodiscovery.com, there are nearly 40 volcanoes that are currently erupting. Most of them are around Indonesia and regions that are along the “Ring of Fire.”

As I’ve been mentioning for weeks, the weather pattern across the region over the last several months has been dominated by a strong ridge of high pressure. The ridge has also led to some very warm and hot weather across the Inland Northwest. As the storms move in from the Pacific, they are weakened considerably as they move into the ridge, and as a result, our supply of moisture is severely reduced.

There is a chance that we could see some moisture around the end of this week. However, the latest long-range forecast models indicate that the high-pressure ridge is expected to hold on, so moisture totals are not anticipated to be that impressive.

Over the last 20 years, many of our summer seasons across North Idaho have been drier than normal. The summer of 2024 only had 1.59 inches of moisture in Coeur d’Alene. We’re still not expecting this season to be as dry, but we’ll have to wait and see what happens with the big ridge in the next four to six weeks. Based on our long-term cycles, there is a good chance we’ll have wetter weather develop across the Inland Northwest in the late summer or early fall. Stay tuned.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com.