THE CHEAP SEATS with STEVE CAMERON: If Zags keep losing close games? Don't even think about it
Could Gonzaga miss the NCAA tournament?
Yes.
Incredibly.
Yes.
We’re talking about a team that opened the season by dishing out a 101-63 hammering of Baylor.
That would be the same Baylor outfit that is fifth in the 16-team Big 12, and whipped No. 11 Kansas 81-70 last Saturday.
So.
What exactly has happened to the Zags since that promising start, which stretched out to 5-0 before an awful habit took hold?
Well, despite possessing more depth than Gonzaga has enjoyed in recent years (Mark Few uses 10 players early, late and in crunch situations), these guys can’t win a close game.
Their most severe critics blame a lack of character.
Nah.
I’d say it’s about making shots.
Or missing them.
A lack of accuracy behind the 3-point line — and difficulty stopping opponents from that same distance — keeps the Zags from closing the deal when games get tight.
The result?
Gonzaga has played five games that were decided by six points or less, and two more that went to overtime.
The record in these tense affairs: 0-7.
That is NOTHING like the Zags’ history, which boasts season after season of breaking opponents’ hearts down the stretch.
GONZAGA does have 16 victories to go with those seven tough losses.
All of its wins, though, have been dominant performances, many against overmatched victims.
There are bizarre outliers in there, too.
For instance, the Zags got pushed around and eventually beaten in overtime at Oregon State.
That awful loss came on Jan. 16.
Twelve days later, Gonzaga got the Beavers back in Spokane, and won by THIRTY-EIGHT points.
In fact, none of the Zags’ 16 wins have been by less than two possessions.
The losses, you know about.
After Saturday night’s 62-58 loss to Saint Mary’s in Moraga, Few summed things up pretty bluntly.
“The trends are bad,” he said. “We’re not making shots at the ends of these games, and we’re not getting stops.”
That will do it.
Zags miss, other guys score.
Buzzer goes off.
Yikes.
That hideous formula actually could keep Gonzaga out of the NCAA tournament, a season-ending crash that Few has not experienced in his 25 years on the job.
I think this “trend” (to use Few’s word) actually got locked in with the Zags’ very first loss, an overtime mess against West Virginia at the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas.
The Zags had a five-point lead, and possession of the ball, with 18 seconds remaining
Nolan Hickman got trapped, more or less, right at the halfcourt line.
He had some options, but the ball was knocked free before Hickman could make a pass.
In what seemed like a heartbeat, WVU’s Tucker DeVries had swished a long 3-pointer, confusion inbounding the ball led to another steal – and ultimately, DeVries hit two free throws to push the game into overtime.
West Virginia blew out the Zags from there, winning by eight.
SOMEHOW, that first loss cast a shadow of doubt over the Zags.
Their painful inconsistency shooting from deep has added to the problem.
The Saint Mary’s game was decided when the Zags, trailing by two with 5.8 seconds remaining, botched an inbounds play intended for Khalif Battle.
Graham Ike, whose effective range is about eight feet, wound up with the ball in the deep corner.
He heaved up a shot that didn’t touch anything, the Gaels got the rebound, and it was time to cue the Fat Lady to do some singing.
That final fiasco was perfect (that’s sarcasm), considering how the Zags have lost — or thrown away — their six other losses.
They blew a 20-point lead at Kentucky.
All in the second half.
They lost in overtime at home to Santa Clara, allowing the Broncos to drill 12 of 17 3-pointers after halftime — while the Zags managed just 3-of-11 marksmanship during that same period.
They lost a three-point rock fight to UCLA, a six-pointer to UConn and its army of rowdy fans in Madison Square Garden.
Yada, yada.
Where are we now?
Andy Katz, who is a reasonably sharp analyst doing predicted brackets for the NCAA, pegs Gonzaga as a 10-seed in the East region.
Ironically, Andy has UConn as the No. 1 seed in that region, which tells you how close the Zags are to the nation’s very top teams – at least in sheer talent.
A 10-seed is way too close to the edge, though, which suggests that the Zags might want to run the table from here on out.
At some point, they need to win a close game.
Or this season could end in the NIT.
Guh!
Email: scameron@cdapress.com
Steve Cameron’s “Cheap Seats” columns appear in The Press three times each week, normally Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday unless, you know, stuff happens.
Steve suggests you take his opinions in the spirit of a Jimmy Buffett song: “Breathe In, Breathe Out, Move On.”