Did Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow?
Sunday was Groundhog Day, and the world’s most famous groundhog of all time, Punxsutawney Phil, the Pennsylvania woodchuck, made his annual appearance. Each year, he is hauled out of his fake tree stump on Gobbler’s Knob, about 2 miles east of town, every Feb. 2 at precisely 7:25 a.m. to see if he can see his shadow. The town celebrates every Feb. 2 with a festive atmosphere of music and food. I managed to watch a live feed of this event, and it looked like it was great fun for many people.
According to folklore, if Phil catches or sees his shadow, he’s scared back into his den for six more weeks of slumber. The winter season, in turn, will drag on for at least another six weeks. If Phil does not see his shadow, then spring is right around the corner. Believe it or not, approximately 77% of the time, Phil sees his shadow. His longest stretch of seeing his shadow for 21 years. The streak was much shorter for Phil not seeing his shadow. That was two years between 2019 and 2020.
According to the website, www.groundhog.org, German settlers brought this tradition to the United States. With no hedgehogs around, they turned to groundhogs for the holiday instead. In Punxsutawney, Pa., where the holiday is now most notably celebrated, Groundhog Day appeared in the newspaper in 1886 and continued to grow since.
The groundhog receives a lot of media attention at this time of year. There has been a movie based on this event called “Groundhog Day.” It’s a great feature in case you haven’t seen it, and it’s one of our favorite movies. In fact, since the movie’s release in 1993, according to the website, record crowds as high as 30,000 people have visited Punxsutawney each year. It was mentioned that this year may have seen record crowds.
Phil also made an appearance on the Oprah Winfrey Show in 1995, and Groundhog Day was broadcast live for the first time over the internet in 1998. Phil also made a trip to Washington, D.C., in 1986 to meet with President Ronald Reagan.
Like in most examples of weather folklore, there is an ounce of truth in Phil seeing his shadow and therefore predicting six more weeks of winter. Clear skies at this time of year usually mean that a strong cold ridge of high pressure is over the area. There is a definite six-week cycle to high-pressure ridges. They often take two weeks to build, two more weeks to peak and two additional weeks to move out of a particular region or zone. Hence, perhaps, six more weeks of winter.
The legend of Groundhog Day could be based upon an old Scottish couplet: "If Candlemas Day is bright and clear, there’ll be two winters in the year." Candlemas Day was a Christian holiday that celebrated Mary’s ritual purification. They believed that if the sun came out on that particular day, winter would last for six more weeks.
Did Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow? Well, Phil did see his shadow, which would point to six more weeks of winter. But, according to the National Climatic Data Center, the beloved groundhog has been correct about 40% of the time.
In terms of our local weather, after a practically snowless November through January period across the Inland Northwest, many people who like the snow are probably hoping for six weeks or more of winter. As of Feb. 1, only 8.4 inches of snow has fallen at Cliff’s station in Coeur d’Alene for the 2024-25 season. Our normal to date is about 52 inches. Last year, we only had around 27 inches of snow to date.
Cliff and I are still holding to our forecast of near to above-normal snowfall for the lower elevations of the Inland Northwest. A series of storms this week are expected to be cold enough to produce some measurable snowfall. The long-range computer models are still pointing to more measurable snowfall later in the month, so there’s still a good chance that we’ll at least hit the normal of 11.9 inches of snow in Coeur d’Alene this month.
According to Cliff’s records, this is the least amount of snow we’ve ever seen to date since 1895. The lowest seasonal snowfall in Coeur d’Alene’s history occurred back in 1933-34 with only 11.2 inches being reported.
As I mentioned last week, the big cities located near the Gulf Coast have received more snow to date for the winter of 2024-25 than Coeur d’Alene. Some major cities in Florida have received over 9 inches of snow for the season, a very rare event indeed. There’s also been a recent snow drought in Anchorage, Alaska, as only 4.3 inches of snow has been reported since Dec. 1.
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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com.