Wednesday, December 06, 2023

CDA SCHOOLS: Is enrollment declining?

| March 17, 2023 1:00 AM

When District 271 schools ask for additional funding it can be dissatisfying and satisfying. Bad or good depending on your perspective. The need is always blamed on the state of Idaho just to blame someone else.

Total enrollment in District 271 for the 2022-2023 school year is 10,121 (PS). With the exception of 2020-2021 with 10,061 enrolled and 2011-2012 with 10,107 enrolled, you must go back to 2005-2006 and earlier to find consistently lower official enrollments. Throughout the decade from 1995 to 2005 there was steady growth in enrollment. The 2019-2020 school year has had the largest enrollment of 11,075. I don’t have the enrollment numbers prior to 1995.

Is this a pause in enrollment growth? Is enrollment declining? Those are just two of many questions. Predicting any population growth or decline requires extensive demographic data plus assumptions. How many children are being moved to the district from places like Portland? At what level of inflation do people stop moving anywhere? Plus, something about a broken clock being correct two times a day has to enter into the estimates. It appears enrollment is declining based on enrollment data. Have you noticed excesses are experienced before adjustments are made? The unchecked rise before the fall.

Why then would the board and administrators seek anything perpetually? Do they see a decline coming? Please, ask for what you need when you need it.

(PS) Data on enrollment provided by Idaho Department of Education, Jan. 25, 2023, Indicates numbers updated in December 2022.


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