Oscar nomination predictions in a competitive year
After a couple years of fewer overall options thanks to COVID, the 2022 movie year featured a more regular mix of cinephile-friendly films and crowd-pleasing blockbusters.
The 2021 Oscar race came down to a battle between streamer titles “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix) and “CODA” (Apple TV+), with the small family drama “CODA” eventually winning Best Picture. This year, perhaps in response to dwindling ratings for the actual Oscar telecast, Academy voters are more likely to showcase big screen experiences. At least three major blockbusters will crack the field of 10 Best Picture nominees this year, but as many as three others have a shot to make the list as well.
Oscar nominations will be revealed on Tuesday, Jan. 24. Major precursors like the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Screen Actors Guild (SAG, Directors Guild (DGA) and Producers Guild (PGA provide some guidance as to what we’ll see nominated that morning, but those precursors haven’t settled on too many “sure things.” Here’s a peak at my best guesses in six major categories, plus a Personal Pick unlikely to happen in each that I would choose if I could vote.
Best Picture
No more preferential ballot nonsense to worry about here for nominations. There will be 10 movies. Much of the list feels pretty locked: Top tier titles include Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans,” Irish-drama “The Banshees of Inishirin,” critical darling “Tar,” and the indie breakout “Everything Everywhere All At Once.”
Two major blockbuster sequels seem to be in good shape too: Expect “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Avatar: The Way of Water” to make the final 10, as they simply haven’t missed in all the relevant precursors.
It also looks like the biopic breakout “Elvis” will make Best Picture as well, a movie that scored more than $150 million at the domestic box office this past summer.
Honestly, several movies are vying for the last three spots, including two other blockbuster sequels “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” and “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” which both landed on the Producers Guild list for Best Picture. That might be a stretch for an Academy that still likes their smaller, artier movies. The Producers Guild also went for “The Whale,” a drama that’s had a divisive response outside from Brendan Frasier’s celebrated lead performance. Still, “The Whale” showed strength at the PGA and SAG, and, of the smaller movies this season, has managed a decent box office return (more so than even “The Fabelmans” and “Tar”).
Netflix’s German World War I film “All Quiet on the Western Front” showed up on several of the Academy shortlists in technical categories, indicating that Academy members have seen the movie and responded well to it. Netflix doesn’t have a surefire Best Picture nominee this year, but they have a lot of campaign money and a burning desire to make sure voters respond to something on their expansive slate.
For the 10th spot, it could be so many different things: the previously mentioned “Glass Onion” or “Black Panther” or one of the three standout film’s directed by women this year (“Aftersun,” “The Woman King,” “Women Talking”). Or maybe another international film — either the brilliant “Decision to Leave” from South Korea or the spectacular “RRR” from India.
Ultimately, I think that last spot will probably go to Damien Chazelle’s manic, uneven “Babylon,” just because of its connection to Old Hollywood. The movie tanked at the box office this Christmas, but it still seems to have a passionate group of fans in the industry.
If I had a vote: I’d substitute “Babylon,” “The Whale” and “Elvis” for “RRR,” “Decision to Leave” and “Aftersun.”
Director
The DGA went for the auteurs behind “The Fabelmans,” “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” “The Banshees of Inishirin,” “Tar” and, in a bit of a surprise, “Top Gun: Maverick.” It might be smart to sub out James Cameron for “Avatar: The Way of Water” instead of “Maverick,” and both “Banshees” and “Tar” are probably the two most vulnerable to miss the Oscar nom. I’ll stick with the four of those five DGA nominees, and instead of a blockbuster, I’ll wish-predict Park Chan-wook to take the “International slot” for “Decision to Leave.”
If I had a vote: Just personal preference, but I’d also dump “Tar” for S.S. Rajamouli’s “RRR.”
Actress
Three look like sure-things: Cate Blanchett for “Tar,” Michelle Yeoh for “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” and Viola Davis for “The Woman King.” A week ago, I would have said Michelle Williams was also a sure thing for “The Fabelmans.” Then she missed at SAG. Still, I expect her to make it in. The fifth slot could be one of the two other SAG nominees: Ana de Armas in “Blonde” (she’s good in a bad movie) or Danielle Deadwyler for “Till.” Watch out for potential spoilers in Margot Robbie for “Babylon” or Olivia Coleman for “Empire of Light.”
If I had a vote: Competitive year, but I’d try to find a way to get Tang Wei in for “Decision to Leave” and Mia Goth in for “Pearl.”
Actor
Four of the five SAG nominees appear strong given their appearances in other precursors: Colin Farrell for “The Banshees of Inishirin,” Austin Butler for “Elvis,” Brendan Fraser for “The Whale,” and Bill Nighy for “Living.” That Adam Sandler nomination for “Hustle” at SAG sorta came out of nowhere, and if he couldn’t make it in for “Uncut Gems,” I don’t see how he makes it here. Instead, here’s hoping Paul Mescal can take the fifth slot for his incredible work in “Aftersun.” Two big stars could spoil it: Tom Cruise for “Maverick” and Hugh Jackman for “The Son.”
If I had a vote: Take out Bill Nighy (just because I haven’t seen “Living”) and go with Daniel Kaluuya in “Nope.”
Supporting Actress
I feel confident about three SAG nominees here: Angela Bassett in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (she’d be the FIRST acting nomination from the Marvel Cinematic Universe), Kerry Condon in “The Banshees of Inisherin,” and Jamie Lee Curtis for “Everything Everywhere All At Once.” Another SAG nominee, Hong Chau in “The Whale,” seems to be riding some precursor buzz for that movie, but I’m less confident. I would prefer to see the fifth SAG nominee, Stephanie Hsu for “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” make it in over her co-star Curtis, but she’s not an established name.
Some Oscar predictors seem to think Michelle Williams will wind up in this category instead for “The Fabelmans,” but the actress has been campaigning in lead for months now. Other options could be Jessie Buckley or really any of the “Women Talking” cast, or Janelle Monae for “Glass Onion” or Carey Mulligan for “She Said.” Ultimately, I’ll guess the critic’s favorite — Dolly de Leon for her breakout role in “Triangle of Sadness.”
If I had a vote: I’d go for Lashana Lynch, for either “The Woman King” or “Matilda the Musical.”
Supporting Actor
Anybody who watched his speech at the Golden Globes certainly wants Ke Huy Quan to be nominated AND win for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” He’s at least guaranteed the nomination. Two supporting performances from “The Banshees of Inishirin” received SAG nominations this year, and, yes, I think both Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan can do the same at the Oscars. Paul Dano received a SAG nomination for “The Fabelmans,” but, honestly, he could get upstaged by his own co-star, Judd Hirsch. The fifth SAG nominee, Eddie Redmayne in “The Good Nurse,” hasn’t really appeared at other precursors to think it will translate here, especially since the Netflix film hasn’t made much of an impression anywhere.
That fifth slot could be Ben Whishaw for “Women Talking,” and some insane people seem to think the popularity of “Elvis” will translate into a Tom Hanks nomination. More likely, a different megastar (Brad Pitt of “Babylon”) if that movie overperforms on Oscar nomination morning (and voters continue to ignore the rumbling controversies in his personal life).
If I had a vote: Whishaw deserves to be there for “Women Talking,” but what about two brilliant comedic turns this year? Stop being cowards, Academy, and vote for Nicholas Hoult in “The Menu” and Pedro Pascal in “The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent.”
• • •
Tyler Wilson is a member of the International Press Academy and has been writing about movies for Inland Northwest publications since 2000, including a regular column in The Press since 2006. He can be reached at twilson@cdapress.com.