ZAGS TRACKER with STEVE CAMERON: How far Zags go could fall on freshman's hands

For the past five years, Gonzaga’s fate in the NCAA tournament has gone almost exactly to the form you’d have guessed.

Sadly, of course, the 30-2 team of 2020 was denied a shot at the national title when COVID-19 shelved the entire event.

But the big, powerful gang of 2017 reaching the final against North Carolina was no shock.

A year later, the Zags lost a Sweet Sixteen game to Florida State when Killian Tillie was ruled out with injury at the last minute.

Then came the one genuine shocker — the Rui-Brandon-Perkins-Norvell team of ’19 (conquerors of mighty Duke in Maui) getting upset by defensively thuggish Texas Tech in the Elite Eight.

Still, it was the Elite Eight, not some tournament on Guam.

We’ve already mentioned the frustration of 2020, which brings us to last season, when the undefeated Zags wound up exactly where most people expected — in a title showdown with Baylor.

Unfortunately, the Bears were super, and the Zags exhausted from a semifinal thriller against UCLA.

Again, though, there have been no real stunners over the last few tournaments.

The closest thing was that loss to Texas Tech, with a Zags team that felt destined to play in the Final Four simply drawing an awful matchup.

SO, NOW …

What about this year’s team?

Honestly, how good are they, and how far can they go?

We can probably answer the first part of that question easily, because you can’t post a 26-3 record against the Zags’ schedule without being one of the nation’s better teams.

But …

What’s their ceiling?

Is this a team that realistically can play for a national championship — or just a darn good group that will stumble at some hurdle short of the Final Four?

I think that’s a tough one to answer.

Why?

Chet Holmgren.

The 7-foot “unicorn” can do spectacular things that set him apart from any other college player — and in some ways, he gives Gonzaga something like a nuclear weapon.

On the other hand, Holmgren doesn’t really have a position on offense, and no real 1-2 connection with fellow big man Drew Timme — despite serious effort from both players to establish one.

When the Zags have the ball, Holmgren tends to roam as something like a shooting guard or slashing forward.

Occasionally, he seems to be simply getting in the way of a fast-functioning offense.

But there’s no question that Chet is terrific at the other end — protecting the rim, blocking or altering shots, and grabbing every rebound within his massive reach.

YOU CAN easily picture Mark Few and his staff up late at night, poring over tapes, and trying to formulate plans to take the most advantage of Holmgren’s skills.

And also figuring out how to minimize his shortcomings in the full team concept.

They’re only going to get one shot at a Final Four with Chet on the roster, and they need to have it work out, well …

Not quite perfectly, but close.

One fairly recent development has been Holmgren’s more frequent forays into the lane as a potential offensive rebounder.

He takes a lot of pressure off Gonzaga’s shooters when he simply grabs a miss and dunks it.

It’s wildly oversimplifying things to say that the Zags will go as far in the NCAA dance as Holmgren can take them — seriously, this would be a very good team even if Chet got hurt and missed the tournament.

Still …

The big kid at his best gives the Zags something that nobody else can toss out there – assuming he manages to fit into the offense seamlessly (and cuts down on the needless turnovers that occur because he naturally dribbles the ball so high).

Individually, Holmgren’s stats are impressive: 14.2 points per game, 9.6 rebounds, 3.6 blocks, 61 percent shooting overall and 41.2 from 3-point range.

YES, IT’S making things too simple to say that we know what we’ll get from the other Zags starters (plus Anton Watson, along with mostly defensive cameos from Nolan Hickman and Hunter Sallis).

It’s fair, though, to say that the rest of the guys have been pretty consistent — and awfully good.

Andrew Nembhard, Rasir Bolton, Julian Strawther and Timme are known commodities, and personally, I’m expecting them to play well in the tournament.

It’s a long-standing belief that success at the NCAA party falls generally to teams that are older, and have really solid guards.

That describes Gonzaga perfectly.

Except for Chet, of course.

He’s neither battle-tested at this sort of level, nor yet 20 years old, nor a true guard.

No one yet knows quite what he’ll be when the competition reaches its business end.

Will he add or subtract against teams like Kentucky or Arizona?

We’re going to find out soon.

And so …

Zag Nation has its collective fingers crossed that Chet’s one shot in college becomes historic.

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Steve Cameron’s “Cheap Seats” columns appear in The Press on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. He also writes Zags Tracker, a commentary on Gonzaga basketball which is published weekly during the season.

Steve suggests you take his opinions in the spirit of a Jimmy Buffett song: “Breathe In, Breathe Out, Move On.”