THE CHEAP SEATS WITH STEVE CAMERON: When and why the lockout might end

Are you wondering when the Major League Baseball lockout will end?

Curious about the next time you can visit T-Mobile Park to watch the young and exciting Mariners?

Angry about what seems to be this needless fight between owners and players, a scrap that — if you believe the two sides — could put the entire sport in jeopardy?

Oh, and …

Do you find yourself wondering why in the hell MLB has found itself in this mess?

Well, you’ve come to the right place.

I’m not claiming to be inside the rooms where commish Rob Manfred and MLBPA boss Tony Clark have so far been unable to whisper sweet nothings in each others’ ears.

But …

Guess what?

I’ve covered baseball longer than many of you have been alive — so I know the people, the goals, and the logic (or lack of it) on both sides of this argument.

Not only that, I’m almost positive I can tell you how this circus will end, and…

When.

FIRST, however, let me make a suggestion.

I’m not in the habit of sending our readers off to gather bits of information from other sources, but …

In this case, there are fascinating, complicated timelines and previous negotiations that set the stage for what we’re seeing — the ugly fights and serious distrust that are keeping owners and players apart as they approach this season.

To understand the background and look behind the curtain in these baseball labor brawls, I recommend a podcast called “Nothing Personal.”

The host is David Samson, former president of the Miami Marlins — and veteran of earlier baseball work stoppages (ones that happened and some that were prevented).

Samson might be annoying his former ownership colleagues by explaining all their negotiating tactics, but he’s determined to be honest, so that fans will have a fair idea when the 2022 baseball actually might start.

Along the way, Samson wants you to know that each side is feeding us false narratives.

He recalled Manfred’s statement that cancellations of any regular-season games (which now has happened) would be a “disastrous outcome.”

False, said Samson.

He asked: “When the Titanic hit that iceberg, was that a disastrous outcome?

“No, the disastrous outcome came when there weren’t enough lifeboats!”

Kind of a tragic analogy, but the point is valid.

It’s not disastrous if MLB postpones some ballgames on frigid April evenings.

Frustrating, maybe …

Yet baseball has endured worse.

WHERE would this fiasco head then?

Start with a basic premise, and I think you’ll have a decent idea what’s coming.

Baseball owners are billionaires.

Many of them might be blockheads who inherited the businesses, but they’re still characters drowning in cash.

They wouldn’t WANT to miss an entire season, because it would mean losses and aggravation.

Owners, though, aren’t going to go hungry — remember, this is a full-bore capitalist country, and piles of cash tend to attract even larger piles of cash.

MLB could call off the 2022 season, and the value of each club would STILL go up.

No soup kitchens for the owners.

Ah, but what about the players?

Superstars have no financial worries, but a huge portion of those 1,200 major league players were happy to hear that their union will provide them around $1,500 per month.

However …

Even players making the MLB minimum earn around a hundred grand each month.

That’s a big drop to $1,500, when you have mortgage payments, diapers to buy, etc.

The bottom line is that the union will scrap for what it can, and then cave in.

My guess is that everything will be backed up for one month, and the season will start around May 1.

So, we’ll have a little delay, but then …

Play ball.

Email: [email protected]

Steve Cameron’s “Cheap Seats” columns appear in The Press on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. He also writes Zags Tracker, a commentary on Gonzaga basketball which is published weekly during the season.

Steve suggests you take his opinions in the spirit of a Jimmy Buffett song: “Breathe In, Breathe Out, Move On.”