ZAGS TRACKER with STEVE CAMERON: Who, just who, can spoil the Zags celebration?
Let’s do something different this week.
The Zags, who face Loyola Marymount and Portland tonight and Saturday, realistically should not have to break a sweat until they visit BYU on Feb. 5.
In the meantime, assuming they take care of business, the guys can do pretty much what their fans are doing — checking other games, studying the rankings like hawks, trying to feel confident about landing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, etc.
So, why don’t we join the crowd and look around the college hoops landscape?
When you’ve played in two of the past four national championship games, there’s no way of hiding each season’s goal — to win it all, and finally get that biggest and most glorious banner hanging in the Kennel.
OK then, we’ll just start with accepting that this year’s Zags are good enough to finish the season with confetti raining down on them.
A sea of hugs.
Ballcaps and T-shirts that proclaim Gonzaga as the team enjoying that one shining moment.
NOW THEN …
Who could spoil that dream?
Yes, there are dark horses, long shots who might rise from an 11-seed to win the whole thing, but being realistic, that’s not likely to happen.
Generally, the champion emerges from a small group of teams that combine talent, experience, savvy coaching, and just enough good breaks when it matters.
You can argue my judgment as we narrow the field, and that’s fair.
We can’t exactly look closely at a couple hundred teams, though — so for this exercise, I’m going to select my personal group of contenders.
Sure, I could be wrong, but …
I don’t think so.
Besides the Zags, the teams that give off a special vibe (not to mention having a raft of outstanding players) would seem to be Auburn, Duke, UCLA, Kansas, Baylor, Purdue, Arizona (can’t leave Tommy Lloyd out of this conversation), and Villanova.
You’re right, I’ve left out Kentucky and Houston — each, too erratic to win a six-game tournament — and if you want a surprise team that could come out of nowhere, I’ll take Illinois.
BUT NOW let’s get to the sluggers who have a serious shot at winning this thing.
That means starting with Auburn (19-1, No. 1 in the AP poll).
The Tigers might remind you a bit of last year’s Baylor bullies, since Auburn makes its living on the boards and with the NBA-bound duo of 6-10 Jabari Smith and 7-1 Walker Kessler leading a club that averages 8.1 blocks per game.
Guards Wendell Green and K.D. Johnson are both under six feet, but blurry quick and tough as a couple of boots.
Unfortunately for Auburn’s chances of riding a magic year to the title, this team doesn’t handle the ball very well (15 assists to 11 turnovers per game), and although everyone will fire up a 3-ball (they average 26 attempts), the Tigers convert just 33.5 as a team, and only Smith — now considered the likely No. 1 pick in the NBA draft – connects on more than 35 percent.
The Tigers just aren’t great shooters (46 percent overall).
In their first game as the top team in the poll, Auburn should have lost to a really poor Missouri team (8-11), but got just enough rebounds to win 55-54.
These guys are rugged, but they won’t win an NCAA title.
BAYLOR repeating as champion would be the obvious nightmare, but these are not last year’s Bears.
They can still pound the glass and play musclebound defense, but there aren’t as many guards throwing in 3-pointers for fun.
I could see Baylor making the Final Four, but that’s the limit.
UCLA, on the other hand, is a much better team than the bunch that Gonzaga pounded by 20 earlier this year.
Center Cody Riley is back from injury — a huge lift — and five-star frosh Peyton Watson is now a meaningful part of the rotation.
The Bruins destroyed Arizona this week, although I think that was one of those “fraud games” where one team does everything right, and the other one can’t throw the ball in the ocean from a beach.
Don’t be shocked if the Cats win the rematch in Tucson. Even in a one-sided loss, they murdered UCLA on the boards, and if you’re sensing a theme with these teams I suspect COULD win a title, there you go.
Same thing with Duke.
We knew Paolo Banchero was good (although he plays in spurts, and I honestly wonder if he’s a hundred percent physically), and Wendell Moore Jr. is the heartbeat of that team.
Having big Mark Williams display a monstrous jump into a rebounding, shot-blocking force under the hoop, though, has made Duke a legit title contender.
THERE are a few other teams in the picture, pretty darn good clubs floating around the edges of contention.
Kansas is always in the mix, although the Jayhawks have problems in the post — and thus would have terrible matchup problems with Gonzaga if it got to a head-to-head game deep in the tournament.
Still, Ochai Agbaji is a future pro who can shoot it better under duress than anyone in the country.
Villanova has Colin Gillespie back and the brilliant coaching of Jay Wright to guide the ship, but ‘Nova doesn’t have the talent to avoid being wildly erratic.
Having said that, those exact words were used to describe UCLA a year ago, and look what happened.
Purdue?
The good news …
There’s one all-world scorer in Jaden Ivey, plus a nice complementary guard in Sasha Stefanovich, and team-wide accuracy from deep (40.1 percent on 3-pointers).
The not-so-good news …
The Boilers’ two roaming seven-footers are fairly immobile, they can and do get caught in switches, and would struggle to cover or rebound with most of the teams on this list.
Illinois is my upset special if Kofi Cockburn is at the top of his game, and maybe I’ll toss in Wisconsin and Michigan State – because there always seems to be a Big Ten team crashing the party.
(Although I truly don’t think they can win.)
So, there you have it, the teams Gonzaga perhaps should fear.
On the other hand, to quote a mustachioed junior from Texas (the state, not the team), maybe the Zags shouldn’t fear anyone, because …
“We’re the best team in the country,” said Drew Timme.
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Steve Cameron’s “Cheap Seats” columns appear in The Press on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. He also writes Zags Tracker, a commentary on Gonzaga basketball which is published weekly during the season.
Steve suggests you take his opinions in the spirit of a Jimmy Buffett song: “Breathe In, Breathe Out, Move On.”