ZAGS TRACKER with STEVE CAMERON: Zags' numbers don't tell the whole story
It’s senior night at Gonzaga.
The top-ranked Zags have a maximum of five games remaining ahead of the NCAA tournament.
They face Santa Clara in the Kennel this evening — with several Gonzaga alums currently in the NBA due to enliven the festivities — then wrap up the regular season with a testy road trip to San Francisco and Saint Mary’s next weekend.
Then comes the WCC postseason tournament, with the Zags having earned a bye into the semifinals, so they’ll play two games at most in Las Vegas.
And then it’s off to the Big Dance.
Considering that we’re wrapping up the home schedule tonight, it seems like a good time to take a good, long look at this team to see where they stand.
The numbers are terrific, as usual — 22-2 overall; 11-0 in the conference; No. 1 in the NET and most national polls; a scoring average of 89.9 points per game versus 64.1 for the opposition; success rate of 37.8 percent shooting 3-pointers; 116 straight weeks in the AP poll (best in the country), and 60 consecutive weeks in the top five.
THE ZAGS are rolling, just as they have been for the last several years.
But as we get to the business end of the season, with the WCC’s toughest tests coming — along with the conference tournament, and then the hopeful quest for another Final Four …
At this point, we need to decide which of these numbers that we admire so much truly mean something going forward, as opposed to what we (and opposing coaches) see with our own eyes.
This might be a time to wheel out a famous quote from Mark Twain …
"Figures often beguile me," Twain wrote in his autobiography, "particularly when I have the arranging of them myself — in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force.
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
Twain was attributing that famous phrase to British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli, but historians cannot find any reference to Disraeli ever saying or writing it.
Thus, the origin of that knock on statistics (and how they can be manipulated) has been contested since the early 20th century without any conclusion, and many people now believe that Twain himself was the first to write it.
My point …
When you start trying to figure out ANYTHING involving statistics — including what certain people have said about them — you’re going to get a headache.
TWAIN would never make it as a sports journalist in this era of advanced metrics, analytics and so forth.
Heck, I cover the game every day, and I’m still a little puzzled by the use of True Shooting Percentage — for which the formula is PTS / (2 * TSA).
Next, to calculate True Shooting Percentage, you have to know how to find True Shooting Attempts (TSA).
The formula for that is FGA + 0.44 * FTA.
So, now, do you understand why I don’t dive too far into statistics?
Let me give you a practical example …
Andrew Nembhard is currently hitting 33 percent of his 3-point attempts for the season — exactly one-third of those tries.
He’s far behind Chet Holmgren (46.2 percent), Rasir Bolton (45.5) and Julian Strawther (38.8).
With all due respect to those three fine shooters, however, I personally would pick Nembhard if I needed a 3-pointer with a game on the line.
Why?
Because the statistics, as Mark Twain would suggest, are damn lies.
Holmgren, Bolton and Strawther take most of their downtown shots within the Zags offense — in other words, with a little time and space, with their feet set and body positioned to shoot.
Meanwhile, Nembhard’s attempts tend to come under duress, sometimes at the end of the shot clock, and always with somebody guarding him.
THERE is no question that Gonzaga’s opponents gear their defenses to hassle Nembhard — as a facilitator, as a driver to the hoop, and as an outside shooter.
Look, I’m not saying that all the Zags’ gaudy numbers are meaningless.
Scoring so many points while ranking among the nation’s best defenses means you’re very, very good.
The shooting percentages of players like Holmgren and Drew Timme may not be precise enough for analytics junkies, but they DO tell you that these two take good shots — and make a staggering percentage of them.
The stats, in general, tell the story of an awfully good team, a legit contender to win the national championship.
Coming up, however, there are five more WCC games to ensure the Zags hang on to a No. 1 seed at the NCAA party — and from there, it’s about avoiding a bad night, a bad matchup, bad officiating, and all the other things that can keep a great team from celebrating under the confetti.
Indeed, we saw some outrageous calls prevent Gonzaga from winning its first title in 2017.
This year’s team is just as good (and yes, I agree that the statistics back it up).
Now, we just need the No. 1 team to cut those nets.
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Steve Cameron’s “Cheap Seats” columns appear in The Press on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. He also writes Zags Tracker, a commentary on Gonzaga basketball which is published weekly during the season.
Steve suggests you take his opinions in the spirit of a Jimmy Buffett song: “Breathe In, Breathe Out, Move On.”