Abortion: American opinion favors middle ground

The U.S. Supreme Court is considering two abortion cases – one from Texas heard Monday, and another Dec. 1 from Mississippi. Given the court’s conservative majority, most expect them to weaken (if not overturn) the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, which would allow states to enact tighter abortion restrictions.

There’s a touch of irony in that scenario, as the landmark Roe case also came up from Texas.

The challenged Texas law is the most restrictive in the nation, outlawing all abortion six weeks after pregnancy. Because most women don’t know they’re pregnant until six weeks or later, it’s effectively a full-on ban, which will likely be mimicked in other states if SCOTUS upholds it.

Is that in line with American opinion?

Not quite. According to Gallup and Pew Research surveys, the majority of Americans believe abortion should be legal at least early in pregnancies, then restricted later. That opinion has apparently not changed significantly in decades.

According to a combination of Gallup polls conducted 2011 to 2021 and reported in The New York Times, 54 percent of Texans and 50 percent of all Americans believe abortion should be legal under certain, but not all circumstances (e.g., 12 weeks into pregnancy, rape cases, youth, or mother’s health).

Another 28 percent of Americans (but only 18 percent of Texans) believe abortion should be legal under any circumstances. Less than a quarter – 20 percent - of Americans support an across-the-board abortion ban with no exceptions.

That makes the Texas law stricter than what Gallup found the nation’s majority supports, although at least half support more restrictions than currently exist.

The 12-week mark represents the popular trimester-based view on abortion. Pew Research polls have found a slightly higher percentage - six in 10 Americans – support abortion rights in the first trimester. That shrinks to less than one-third (28 percent) in the second trimester. Pew found only 13 percent support it in the final three months of pregnancy.

Those views are not as partisan as many assume. While there are differences, even in Red states Gallup polls (using voter behavior in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections) indicate Americans affiliated with both major parties support some access to abortion, although not unfettered:

“Should be legal under any circumstances:” Red states 22 percent, Blue 35 percent, and U.S. overall 28 percent.

“Should be legal under certain circumstances:” Red 51 percent, Blue 49 percent, and U.S. overall 50 percent.

“Always illegal:” Red 25 percent, Blue 14 percent, and U.S. overall, 20 percent.

As it stands today, policies in European nations seem to closely reflect this American majority’s middle-ground opinion, allowing abortion in the first trimester but restricting it afterward in an effort to balance rights of both fetus and pregnant women. If Roe is gutted and first trimester abortion bans hold, legal experts predict a checkerboard contrast of state laws leading to more litigation as those discrepancies are challenged in courts.

More information on the cases, with oral argument transcripts sometimes available, is at Supremecourt.gov.

Sholeh Patrick, J.D. is a columnist for the Hagadone News Network. Email [email protected].