'The world doesn't run by itself'

The relationship between the United States and the Middle East has been unstable for decades. As the county settles into a new administration, a former U.S. ambassador believes caution and a steady hand will be vital to national stability. 

In an address to the Coeur d’Alene Rotary Club and interview with the Press Friday afternoon, former U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker explained why the history of global partnerships with the Middle East has — and will, continue to shape the world.

A Spokane native, Crocker served the nation as a U.S. ambassador six times with a career spanning from 1990 to 2012 in Lebanon, Kuwait, Syria, Pakistan, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Many have experienced conflict, in which the U.S., Crocker said, has been involved in “for better or for worse.” 

Essentially, he explained, this is default to a failure of governance following World War I by Mandatory Powers like Britain. 

“They did nothing to develop institutions or the human capacity to provide, eventually, a stable self-governance,” Crocker said. “Then, as states did get independence, it was in almost every case governed by an authoritarian leader, mainly the military.” 

Without the respected institutions and the lack of respect for the rule of law, Crocker described it as a “dog-eat-dog kind of world.” Part of this is because of the failure of “-isms,” colonialism, imperialism, post-independence monarchism, authoritarianism, communism, socialism, and — most recently — Islamism. 

Unlike newly elected President Joe Biden, former President Barack Obama took a step back from acting as an internationalist, Crocker said. The most dramatic example is the Syrian refugee crisis that began in 2011. 

“He would absolutely not get involved in the Syrian conflict, which would drive thousands out of the county, many, sadly dying and drowning in the Mediterranean,” he told the Press. “That was not his problem, Obama thought.” 

Immediate past-President Donald Trump did not help the situation. Instead, Crocker said, he took it a step further by pulling out of the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2018, the Paris Agreement, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2017. Now, the notion of America’s withdrawal from the world is “very much on the table” as Biden has the option to swing back. However, Crocker believes that action could be burdened by the COVID-19 pandemic and the resources the nation has expanded over the last year. In Biden’s corner are advisers with significant foreign relations knowledge, Crocker said, like CIA Director William Burns, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and director of national intelligence Avril Haines. 

“He’s got the right people, but the world has moved on without us after the four years of Trump’s presidency,” Crocker said. “It may be hard to get back in.”

The world, as Crocker said, has moved on without the U.S. Gaining their trust may be difficult as international leaders don’t know what Biden’s — or more importantly Biden’s successor’s — foreign policy will be. The consistency of America’s character in global arrangement, Crocker said, will be critical.

“They (Middle East nations) see us as completely inconsistent,” Crocker said. “Presidential revocation of another president’s executive agreement was theoretically possible but had never happened. Now, it has happened, and it will be very hard to convince countries with whom we are seeking an agreement that it will not be later rescinded.”

Admittedly, the former ambassador said he worries that the nation’s image and security have been damaged by being an unreliable ally. He pointed to the Taliban’s continued relationship with al-Qaida, despite promises to discontinue the support of the terrorist group that organized the Sept. 11 attacks.

“I see nothing to indicate that if the Taliban come back to power that they are going to break those ties,” Crocker said. “If Biden pulls completely out of Afghanistan, then fasten your seat belts because the band will be back, the Taliban will take over and bring al-Qaida with them.

To begin the journey toward a positive Middle Eastern relationship, the former ambassador believes U.S. officials should become increasingly engaged in global discussions. He recommended paying considerable attention to Iraq and Afghanistan, making them a “clear, top-tier national security priority,” keeping small military units in those countries, and continuing conversations with America’s allies. 

“We’ll see what happens with this administration,” Crocker said in the close of his presentation. “The world without global leadership could be a very, very scary place. The world doesn’t run by itself.”