Numbers suggest progress against COVID-19

With the last of the three-day weekends behind us for now, Panhandle Health is encouraging a renewed sense of caution to keep the district’s residents safe from the coronavirus.

“We’re still seeing very high numbers of cases per day,” said Katherine Hoyer, public information officer for Panhandle Health. “Our positivity rate is still in the red zone. These are still concerning numbers, even with the vaccine released.”

Those numbers have steadily climbed since the beginning of the fall. Friday’s numbers marked a total of 19,170 residents who have tested positive for COVID-19. Of those, 208 have died, including six new deaths Friday.

But Panhandle Health is also tracking more hopeful numbers, as well.

Of the 24,100 doses received into Panhandle Health and distributed to providers so far, the health district is reporting 22,750 have already been administered into the arms of locals, and Gov. Brad Little told the Coeur d’Alene Press Friday the remaining vaccine in the district is spoken for.

“I got a report this morning that all the vaccine in Health District 1 and 2 is either out or scheduled to be administered in the next 10 days to two weeks,” Little said.

Those either eligible for vaccination now or in the next two weeks form an ever-growing list that includes first responders and long-term care residents and staff — and will soon include teachers and those age 65 and older, among others.

Hoyer said the continued proliferation of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines has given many — herself included — a sense of hope, but she warned that Idahoans should not put the cart before the horse.

“I think [the vaccine] can certainly lead to a false sense of security for those who haven’t been vaccinated yet,” she said. “Keep in mind, we need a certain amount of the population to reach that herd immunity. And these are two-dose vaccines; we need two doses anywhere from 21 days to 28 days apart. So there’s still a process ahead of us.”

That herd immunity number has not been nailed down, Hoyer stressed, though Little said Friday that the potential of two new manufacturers — AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson — could propel Idaho into herd immunity by the end of summer.

“I heard one of the national experts who’s moving into the next [presidential] administration say they still hope by summer, we’ll have enough vaccine,” Little said. “Of course, the herd immunity issue changes if the new vaccines show up. [The strains] are a bigger spreader that are 40 to 70 percent more apt to spread — the new strain — and that means the viral loading in the community is higher. So that means you’ve got to have a higher percent of people vaccinated.”

Not all the news from the COVID-19 numbers has been dour. Coming into the weekend, local hospitalizations over the previous week have seen their sharpest seven-day decline since early August, dropping from 92 on Jan. 8 to 74 on Friday, according to Kootenai Health.

That number dropped even further on Monday morning to 60, though 23 remain in critical care. Kootenai Health has been teetering on the verge of implementing crisis standards of care since October as hospital capacity has been routinely pushed to its breaking point.

“I know people are feeling relief,” Hoyer said, “but we have to keep remaining vigilant and keep following the proper precautions. Wash your hands. Practice physical distancing. Stay home if you’re sick. Wear a mask. These are things that will continue to help slow the spread.”