THE CHEAP SEATS with STEVE CAMERON: Ray a risk worth taking for M's

It’s a risk.

There’s no other way to describe the Mariners’ splashing out $115 million over five years for the services of lefty Robbie Ray.

Having said that, this is probably a risk worth taking.

If Ray can find the strike zone as often as he did last season, the Mariners have a new ace.

The guy throws a four-seam fastball up in the zone at 94 miles per hour (occasionally hitting 97), and, per MLB Savant, it moves 10 inches horizontally away from right-handed hitters.

Translation: It’s almost unhittable.

Here’s a trivia item involving Ray, so you can stump your pals at the pub …

He struck out more batters (1,241) in his first 1,000 innings than anyone in the history of baseball.

“It’s tough to make an argument that that’s not the best fastball going right now in the American League,” Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash said after Ray struck out 13 batters.

“He’s going to come after you with fastballs at the top of the zone and when it’s there, there’s really not a ton you can do with it.”

RAY WON the AL Cy Young Award with Toronto last year, and deservedly so.

He was 13-7 with a 2.84 ERA (miniscule by American League standards, considering the DH), struck out 248 in 193 1/3 innings over 32 starts, and posted a WAR of 6.7.

If you’re not familiar with term WAR, it means Wins Above Replacement — or wins a player can give you as opposed to an average major leaguer.

Simple math would suggest that Ray’s 6.7 wins against anyone in the back end of Mariners rotation would have put them in the playoffs last year.

The question that must be asked, however, (and surely Seattle’s very successful analytics gurus studied it ferociously) is how well Ray can carry last season’s form into the future.

The good news is that studies have shown that fastball pitchers tend to age better than guys who throw sinkers and rely on ground balls.

On the other hand …

Ray has been in the majors since 2014 and was traded twice because he never quite got command of that humming fastball.

Last year, though, he cut his walk rate from around 8 per 9 innings to 2.4 per 9 — an improvement that’s almost supernatural.

WE WERE talking about risk, the notion of committing $115 million for a pitcher who has only had two good years (one with Arizona in 2017) over eight seasons in the big leagues.

Ray himself credits a return to some mechanics he used in the minor leagues, specifically 2012.

If that were the answer, it’s baffling why Ray didn’t return to his old wind-up sooner.

Stubbornness, maybe?

Who knows with ballplayers (and especially left-handed pitchers)?

At any rate …

The argument that no doubt won the day within the Mariners hierarchy was that there is a risk inherent with any pitcher.

Tommy John surgery is only one tweaked elbow away.

But if the Mariners truly mean to improve on that hugely enjoyable 90-win season, they will have to spend money and, yes, take some risks.

A lot of people in baseball thought Ray would fetch even more money, so maybe the Mariners actually sold Robbie Ray on what’s happening in Seattle.

Now, to find that big bat for the middle of the lineup.

No use letting Ray lose 1-0 games.

Email: scameron@cdapress.com

Steve Cameron’s “Cheap Seats” columns appear in The Press on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays.

He also writes Zags Tracker, a commentary on Gonzaga basketball which is published weekly during the season.